The NHL regular season is over, and the Gripes has returned to look back at how well (and poorly) my predictions went for the 2011-12 season. I already weaved my way through the West. This time, a look back at the East.
15. Montreal Canadiens (78 Points, 5th–Northeast Division)
Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 12th in East, 4th in Northeast
Why I Didn’t Go Far Enough: I knew the Canadiens were due for a downturn. I just didn’t know the downturn would be on an epic scale. Everything went wrong. Carey Price didn’t play well enough, the team couldn’t get consistent goal-scoring, and the defense was never able to come together. Off the ice, things were a mess, too. An assistant coach was fired right before a game, the head coach was fired, the GM pulled a player from a game (in the middle of it) to trade him, and then finally the GM himself was let go. It’s a messy situation, to say the least. The new broom coming in will sweep clean, but it was too late to fix them this season.
14. New York Islanders (79 Points, 5th–Atlantic Division)
Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 9th in East, 4th in Atlantic
Why I Was Too High On Them: I knew the offense would be there. I knew the defense would be average at best. I just happened to think that the goaltending situation would be figured out quickly, mainly due to the inevitable Rick DiPietro injury. The injury happened, but Evgeni Nabokov was hurt for a time, and that made the team struggle too much. It also didn’t help that the four teams from their division finished with 100+ points each. It’s a tough division for a team like this one, and that led to their downfall in the standings.
13. Toronto Maple Leafs (80 Points, 4th–Northeast Division)
Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 10th in East, 3rd in Northeast
Why I Overrated Them: I mistakenly thought that the Maple Leafs would finally figure things out in goal. That is the big reason why this team fell apart down the stretch. They had the scoring, and played serviceable defense. The goaltending never gave them a chance, though. And this will be a weakness for a while for them, it appears. It would also help if they could get a couple decent centers. But that isn’t what killed this season for them. The men between the pipes did that.
12. Carolina Hurricanes (82 Points, 5th–Southeast Division)
Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 7th in East, 3rd in Southeast
Why I Was Dead Wrong: The team struggled mightily right out of the gates. Paul Maurice was fired (again). The team continued to struggle. They never could find consistency in any aspect of the game. Nothing very exciting to talk about with this squad. Moving on.
11. Winnipeg Jets (84 Points, 4th–Southeast Division)
Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 13th in East, 4th in Southeast
Why I Was Right, Sorta: The Zombie Thrashers ended up close to where I expected them to, but got there in a very unexpected way. I expected them to struggle all season long, never get it together, and finish in the bottom of the standings. Instead, they played amazing at home (especially early), and a lot of early-season home games got them up the standings for a long time. Eventually, the team’s play started to slip, too many road games caught up with them, and they plummeted out of playoff contention. The team’s home ice advantage will help them in the future. But it didn’t help them enough this season.
10. Tampa Bay Lightning (84 Points, 3rd–Southeast Division)
Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 4th in East, 2nd in Southeast
Why I Was A Freaking Idiot: I thought that the team’s goaltending would hold up. Big surprise that 97-year-old Dwayne Roloson and career backup Mathieu Garon couldn’t get it done. Stamkos and St. Louis got it done for them, but they couldn’t prevent pucks from going in their own net. This is a team that could recover quickly, but they need to fix the massive hole in goal.
9. Buffalo Sabres (89 Points, 3rd–Northeast Division)
Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 5th in East, 2nd in Northeast
Why I Was A Freaking Idiot Again: This team just could not right their ship until it was far too late. This team was in last place in the conference in the middle of February. Miller couldn’t lift up the team when he was healthy. The high-priced acquisitions struggled to assimilate. And the best players on the team didn’t play like the best players. They made a late charge, and nearly made the playoffs, but they didn’t deserve that, honestly, and they just fell short.
8. Ottawa Senators (92 Points, 2nd–Northeast Division)
Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 15th in East, 5th in Northeast
Why I Must Hang My Head In Shame: Ottawa actually slid back at the end of the season. They would have made me look worse otherwise. The team really came together, and did so quickly. Craig Anderson played well early, the offense provided enough scoring, Erik Karlsson became a household name, and the Sens rose to the top of the East early on. They started to slide down the standings as the season went on, though. This may be leading to a quick exit from the playoffs. But they earned their spot in the playoffs.
7. Washington Capitals (92 Points, 2nd–Southeast Division)
Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 1st in East, 1st in Southeast
Why I Might Want To Quit Predicting Things: The Caps struggled early in the year, leading to a coaching change. And removing Boudreau for Dale Hunter actually proved to be a terrible decision, because Hunter has proven not to be an NHL coach. The team has had struggles and injuries, especially in goal. It also didn’t help that Nick Backstrom was out half the season, and Alex Ovechkin had a massively inconsistent season. They pulled it together to make the playoffs, and ultimately, their performance in the playoffs will dictate whether the season is a success, but they definitely haven’t put themselves in a position to win in the playoffs.
6. New Jersey Devils (102 Points, 4th–Atlantic Division)
Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 11th in East, 5th in Atlantic
Why I Really Suck: I felt like Martin Brodeur was done. I was wrong. He played well enough, with a good defense in front of him, and the Devils got a ton of offensive support. This isn’t your older brother’s Devils team. Kovalchuk, Parise, Clarkson, Elias, and Sykora all scored more than you expected, and Adam Henrique made a huge impact in his rookie season, filling in for an oft-injured Travis Zajac. All of this led to a strong showing for the team, and a record that would have landed them in first place in the other two divisions.
5. Philadelphia Flyers (103 Points, 3rd–Atlantic Division)
Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 8th in East, 3rd in Atlantic
Why I Kinda Missed, But Kinda Didn’t: I felt like the Flyers hurt themselves a bit short-term in the offseason, trading away proven players for a younger and deeper team in the future. The future happened to be right now. This is a good team, especially offensively. So many players that are capable of scoring up and down the lineup. The defense, however, is thin, which could create a problem. And the biggest problem has been in goal. They spent a ton of money to bring in Ilya Bryzgalov, and he has been inconsistent, at best. He needs to get his act together for the team to go anywhere in the playoffs. In the meantime, he did enough to get the team into 5th spot in the East, which is nothing to look down at.
4. Pittsburgh Penguins (108 Points, 2nd–Atlantic Division)
Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 2nd in East, 1st in Atlantic
Why I Just Missed: The Penguins played well for most of the season. Any team that finishes with 108 points doesn’t get there by accident. Malkin and Neal played well together all season. Fleury had a great year between the pipes. And Kris Letang would have been a Norris finalist, if he was healthy all season. Add in Sidney Crosby at the end of the season, and the team is a huge threat going into the playoffs. They only fell short of the top of the division because the team ahead of them ran away and hid with the lead.
3. Florida Panthers (94 Points, 1st–Southeast Division)
Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 14th in East, 5th in Southeast
Why I Missed By A Mile: The Island of Misfit Toys found a fit together in south Florida. They did it by committee, and it worked. Well, it worked well enough to get them the championship in a weak division. I don’t know that it will work in the playoffs. I don’t know that it will work next season, but this year, Kevin Dineen’s team found their way to the playoffs.
2. Boston Bruins (102 Points, 1st–Northeast Division)
Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 3rd in East, 1st in Northeast
Why I Was In The Right Church, Wrong Pew: Boston looked like the best team in hockey during the month of December. That allowed the team to coast to a division title. They did not look great all the time, though. And without Tuukka Rask down the stretch, due to injury, Tim Thomas proved to be human, and an old human at that. This may not bode well, long-term, both in the playoffs and in future seasons. But for this year, the #2 seed is a good place to be.
1. New York Rangers (109 Points, 1st–Atlantic Division)
Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 6th in East, 2nd in Atlantic
Why They Exceeded My Expectations: I thought they would be decent, with a good defense, and very good goaltending. Instead, they ended up great, with a great defense, and fantastic goaltending. Lundqvist will win the Vezina. McDonagh and Girardi played at a high level. And the team got enough scoring. They will need more scoring in the playoffs, but for the regular season, they got enough.
So, what have we learned from looking back at the East? I got very little right. I maybe should give up on this predicting stuff.
Screw that. I’ll see you next season.