The Gripes: The West, In Review

10 04 2012

Six months ago, yours truly stepped up to the keyboard and boldly predicted the way that the NHL’s conferences would shake out over the course of 82 games. Now that everything has played out, has Mr. Gripes proved to be a prognosticator extraordinaire? Or will Mr. Gripes be hanging his head in shame? Let’s find out, first looking out to the West.

Western Conference

15. Columbus Blue Jackets (65 Points, 5th–Central Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 15th in West, 5th in Central

Why I Was Correct: Things started off rough for the Jackets, and they never got better. James Wisniewski’s suspension at the start of the season really hamstrung the defense, getting the team off to a slow start. Steve Mason proved to truly not be the answer in goal for the future. Jeff Carter proved to be a horrible fit in Columbus. And with the things that occurred at the trade deadline, Rick Nash appears to be on his way out in weeks. This franchise sure looks like a mess going forward. No surprise that they finished DFL this year.

14. Edmonton Oilers (74 Points, 5th–Northwest Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 13th in West, 5th in Northwest

Why I Was (Mostly) Correct: The Oilers’ deficiencies and strengths were as predicted. They struggled in goal, got inconsistent play on defense, and had decent offense that was streaky at times. The youth of the Oilers, especially on the front end, keeps gaining experience, and they looked brilliant at times. At other times, they looked overmatched. This could be a good team, if they get the defense and goaltending figured out, but since they haven’t yet, the bottom of the standings is where they continue to land.

13. Anaheim Ducks (80 Points, 5th–Pacific Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 7th in West, 3rd in Pacific

Why I Was Wrong: Plain and simple, they were the worst NHL team west of Columbus for the first half of the season. They dug themselves a massive hole, and it cost Randy Carlyle his job. Bruce Boudreau came in, and the team had a massive turn-around in the second half. But the massive hole couldn’t be un-dug. So, the team landed here, and they have a lot of work to do in the offseason to fix the issues that exist.

12. Minnesota Wild (81 Points, 4th–Northwest Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 9th in West, 2nd in Northwest

Why I Was Right AND Wrong: I knew the Wild would fall short of the playoffs this season. But I expected them to contend much longer than they did. At the same time, I never expected them to be the top team in the league in late November. So, basically, the Wild were better AND worse than I expected them to be. I don’t know what to make of them because of it. No clue at all. But if they get Zach Parise in the offseason, look the hell out.

11. Colorado Avalanche (88 Points, 3rd–Northwest Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 12th in West, 4th in Northwest

Why I Was Fairly Correct: The Avalanche hung in there the entire season, but they could not get over the hump and stay in the playoff race at the end. And they truly just fell short. They couldn’t get enough scoring, enough defense, nor enough goaltending to elevate the team into the postseason. There are a lot of positives that the team can take out of the season, but they will need to grow as a team to take it to the next step next season.

10. Dallas Stars (89 Points, 4th–Pacific Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 10th in West, 4th in Pacific

Why I Nailed It: They were actually a little better than I expected, in terms of their point total. But they probably could have used one more scorer in the lineup. It was the concern coming into the season, once Brad Richards moved on to the New York Rangers. Kari Lehtonen played well throughout the season, and the defense was decent. One more offensive talent may have made the difference.

9. Calgary Flames (90 Points, 2nd–Northwest Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 11th in West, 3rd in Northwest

Why I Was Close (But No Cigar): I knew Kiprusoff would play too much. I figured Iginla wouldn’t be able to score enough. But I didn’t expect them to get nearly enough support from the team’s roleplayers. Kipper played well, but the fatigue did show at times. It didn’t help that his backup was out with an injury for a very long stretch. But this team may be stuck in this rut, because they don’t have a lot of cap space (assuming there still is a cap after this offseason). It will be extremely tough to fix things, short of a major roster overhaul.

8. Los Angeles Kings (95 Points, 3rd–Pacific Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 2nd in West, 1st in Pacific

Why I Swung And Missed: This team had all the talent to win their division (and in fairness, they were only two points short of winning it). But they clearly had big struggles in reconciling talent with performance. It just never happened for them on the ice, at least not for long enough stretches. They have been coming on of late, making them a potential playoff threat. And with Jonathan Quick, the team absolutely could get rolling if he is playing well. But in a purely regular season sense, the team was an underachiever.

7. San Jose Sharks (96 Points, 2nd–Pacific Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 4th in West, 2nd in Pacific

Why I Was (Mostly) Wrong: San Jose decided to flip the script on me. Usually, they sit at the top of the conference all season long, finishing impressively. They typically follow that up with an underwhelming playoff performance, typically leading to an early exit. This season, they instead ended up struggling in the regular season, sitting on the wrong side of the playoff cutoff line very late into the year. They managed to pull it together, finding their way to the #7 seed ultimately. But they definitely did not look good doing it. Antti Niemi especially has not engendered confidence, despite a decent stat line. The real test for this team has always been the playoffs. Maybe starting their playoff run in an abnormally low spot will propel them to a big run.

6. Chicago Blackhawks (101 Points, 4th–Central Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 5th in West, 2nd in Central

Why I Just Missed: Chicago never really threatened in the conference this season, due to struggles in goal, health issues for star players, and maddening inconsistency. When the Hawks played to their talent, they were able to beat any team, and they most often did just that. But when the goaltending struggled, or when Toews, Kane, and Sharp were out with injuries, the team struggled against just about any team. Despite all that, they finished 3 points short of gaining home ice advantage in the playoffs.

5. Detroit Red Wings (102 Points, 3rd–Central Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 3rd in West, 1st in Central

Why I Was (A Tad Bit) Wrong: It’s hard to say that the Red Wings underachieved. They set a record for most home wins in a row. They looked like one of the best teams all season long. They were mediocre on the road, but a lot of good teams play well at home and a little less well on the road. The reason why I was a little off had much more to do with two teams that overachieved (ones that will be discussed shortly). The Red Wings are still one of the best in the West, and they showed it throughout the season.

4. Nashville Predators (104 Points, 2nd–Central Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 6th in West, 3rd in Central

Why I Was A Little Off: I expected the Predators to play well this season. But not quite this well. They played well early in the season, and at some point, GM David Poile decided to go for it. And that meant bringing in Andrei Kostitsyn to play with his brother Sergei, bringing in Hal Gill to shore up the defense, and bringing in Paul Gaustad to add more depth to the team. That helped the team climb up the standings, nearly into the top spot in the division. It also helped that they have Ryan Suter, Shea Weber, and Pekka Rinne, all making it very tough to score goals against them. The real test for them will be in the playoffs (as they really went all-in this season). But yet again, Barry Trotz has brought his team to a high level, higher than even I expected.

3. Phoenix Coyotes (97 Points, 1st–Pacific Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 14th in West, 5th in Pacific

Why I Couldn’t Have Been More Wrong: The team overachieved massively throughout the season, in just about every phase of the game. Dave Tippett’s coaching certainly had a big influence, but the forwards played above their heads, allowing the team to finish in the top half of the conference in goals per game. The biggest overachiever, however, was between the pipes. Mike Smith took control of the goaltending situation for the team, and never looked back. He really finished the season strong, catapulting the team into the top spot in the Pacific Division. If his strong play continues, the team may continue its strong play well into May.

2. Saint Louis Blues (109 Points, 1st–Central Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 8th in West, 4th in Central

Why I Didn’t Go Far Enough: I felt I was bold in suggesting that the Blues would make the playoffs. Turns out, I was far too conservative. Ken Hitchcock was installed as coach early in the season, and once he came in, the team sky-rocketed up the standings. Hitchcock’s defense-first philosophy fit in well with the roster of the Blues, and it certainly helped the goaltending tandem behind them. Brian Elliott and Jaroslav Halak had career seasons in their platoon roles. This may cause problems for the playoffs, for obvious reasons, but it brought out the best in the goalies during the season, and that helped the team stay ahead of worthy challengers from Nashville, Detroit, and Chicago.

1. Vancouver Canucks (111 Points, 1st–Northwest Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 1st in West, 1st in Northwest

Why I Got This One Right: Short and sweet on this one. Vancouver has the most talent, top-to-bottom, in the conference. Their division isn’t very good. They played the most consistent of any team in the league. No surprise, the cream rose to the top.

So, what have we learned from this look at the West? Some teams made me look like a genius. Others made me look like a blithering idiot. The biggest lesson: Don’t try to make money picking teams’ finishes in the NHL.


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