With some of my thoughts and feelings out about the “Shero Draft Strategy,” I wanted to discuss a few thoughts I’ve had regarding the Pens going forward into free agency.
I, personally, don’t buy into the Ryan Suter stuff. I honestly think it’s a bunch of smoke and mirrors from Camp Shero to get teams like Detroit to bite first and hardest on Suter, leaving Parise to the Pens. Believe me, there are going to be plenty of suitors for Suter and Parise. In my heart of hearts, I think the Pens win the Parise sweepstakes as long as Shero doesn’t try to grossly low-ball him. Crosby and Parise being friends helps matters, certainly, but Parise really seems to fit the mold of what Shero and Bylsma have said the team needs – aggressive, skilled forwards with size.
Suter has stated he wishes to remain in the Western Conference, and I don’t think he’s going to bend for that. More importantly, I feel it would be folly for Shero and the Pens to go after him at the expense of the rest of the team. To land Suter, it will, according to most reports, take somewhere between 6 and 8 million per season. For ANY person who has been paying attention to the lunacy of the general Penguins’ fandom this season, paying a defenseman more than 4 dollars is apparently akin to genocide and will be met with scorn. Unless that player has a kitschy nickname or luxurious hair, in which case those players are safe. Paul Martin has become public enemy number 1 among the majority of (thoroughly uneducated, ignorant) Pens fans. Without fail, the first thing they mention about Martin is his $5M price tag. When pressed, the vast majority are unable to define WHY Martin “sucks,” but will gladly, gladly tell you time and again how “he needs to be better for $5M.”
Hold on to your hats if the Pens sign a guy like Suter for 6-7M/year. He’ll make one questionable turnover and the Consol Energy Center will burn to the damn ground. With that said, I think it’s clear that the Pens should not pursue Ryan Suter. I do, however, feel they should go after another defensive free agent…
Tyler Kennedy. Tyler effing Kennedy. Be honest with yourself for a few minutes. Think to the start of the season. Raise your hand if you expected Tyler Kennedy to be one of the best offensive weapons down the stretch.
It’s OK. I’ll wait.
I know I didn’t expect much out of Kennedy beyond what we got used to seeing from him – solid, if unspectacular offense, no PK, no PP, and the occasional oddity in behavior, such as licking one’s stick. Previously Kennedy’s strongest year in goal scoring came in 2008-2009 when he netted 15 goals. He also produced 20 assists for 35 points with a +15 rating and 171 shots on net. Overall a pretty impressive stat line for a 3rd line player. He took a step down in production the following year, but so did the rest of the team, to be frank. 2010 saw him drop to 13G and 12A. Not nearly as impressive or as good as any had hoped, especially given he was playing with the same line mates.
And then 2011 happened. Let’s take a look at the year that was and what we can expect from Tyler Kennedy……….Kennedy
Lick stick, kiss Cup.
Tyler Kennedy, though actually a center, has been a mainstay as one of the Pens players on the right wing on the third line. We all like to make our jokes and comments about the wings and lack of depth therein, but Kennedy has been a fixture at the position for four years now and has his name etched on Lord Stanley’s fabled Cup. Kennedy has consistently played with Jordan Staal and Matt Cooke and the three combined to be a dangerous line, mixing grit, speed, and skill. Unfortunately, we got to see what Kennedy looked like on the top line this year. Even more disappointing, it wasn’t alongside Sidney Crosby, but instead alongside Staal…or Letestu..or Neal…or Kovalev. It was a weird year. I still feel like I need to sleep off that hangover.
When the rest of the team was shrinking (and I never thought I would say these words), Kennedy stepped up and put the team on his back. If not for TK, Fleury, and killer defense from Z, Martin, and Orpik the team doesn’t make playoffs. Haters gonna hate, but TK can high step his way to S&T Bank with Jerome Bettis and his new $2M contract per year for the next two years. Let’s take a look at 2011 from a statistical perspective.
In terms of actual play, Kennedy was one of the healthier players this season by appearing in 80 games and all seven playoff games. Equally, he was one of the best forces on offense (though his defensive coverage was a little lacking) by generating 45 points, which was good enough to rank him 4th overall on the team in point production. Likewise, Kennedy was third on the team in goal scoring, placing only behind Sidney Crosby and Chris Kunitz (Sid with 32 goals, Kunitz with 23, and Kennedy with 21).
It’s hard to deny that Kennedy became an offensive force this past season, but was it because of playing top-line minutes or was it because coach Bylsma pulled him aside for a length of time during an optional practice in which TK was the only player to dress and took the opportunity to coach him up a little? Maybe it was a little from both of those columns. Statistically, yes, Kennedy had his highest TOI average of his professional career, but it wasn’t a drastic change. In 2009 he averaged 13:46 in ice time, which dipped to 12:35 in 2010, but ticked up to 14:32 in 2011. Realistically, TK only played about one minute more per game than he previously was averaging (though, I admit, those numbers are slightly skewed because he played less with Sid and Geno in the line-up and more when those two were lost for the year).
Was the uptick in offense because of more ice time? Maybe, but I don’t think so. Was it because of Bylsma’s pep talk one day? Could be part of it. Was it playing with talent better than Cooke and Staal (even though he continued to play with Staal at times)? I would say that was largely the case. While I love Cookie and the Gronk, we aren’t exactly talking about world caliber playmakers and offensive juggernauts who need to be respected at all times when on the ice. When playing with guys like Neal or Kovalev or Letestu or Jeffrey, yes, Kennedy became a much more viable threat because he was no longer THE offensive threat on the line. Amazing what happens when the talent has been spread out a little.
234 shots, however, is an incredible number. The only player to shoot more than TK was Letang, and he only had two more shots on the season. More astonishing is that TK learned to take different and better shots instead of the attempts he was known for, almost all of which sailed ~4 feet wide of the cage OR went straight into the goaltender’s chest. He did still post 21 goals and have a shooting percentage of 9. We can joke all we want, but watch this again and thank your lucky stars that he signed at $2M, especially when compared to some of the other deals signed this year.
What can you say? The man learned how to score goals on the rush, cleaning up garbage, from unreal angles, and by getting in good positioning to accept passes for one-timers/making the goaltenders move. He also, in classic Penguins and Bylsma fashion, bangs bodies. Sweet baby Jesus does he go out there and bang bodies. I think we all remember seeing him on 24/7, too, being a vocal leader and trying to get the rest of the team ramped up and playing.
Bang bodies. Score goals. You want to know how important TK was? This video should raise a few red flags as to just how important he was:
“5 goals in 7 games.” “A power play goal.” Remember when we used to score goals on the PP? I know, you have to go back a while to see one of those. Oh, wait, whoops, he also scored the one and only PP goal the Pens scored in the playoffs. Like I said, we all like to make jokes about TK and there was lots of doubt surrounding him, but he was statistically one of the best players on the team, both in the regular season and the playoffs. TK was tied for 2nd on the team in PPGs with 7 (Kunitz also had 7, Sid, of course, had 10).
Why is it accepted that Chris Kunitz is a legitimate top-6 forward and deserving to play with Sid without question, but Kennedy’s season was a complete fluke? I don’t think it was purely coincidence that both Kennedy and Kunitz had oddly similar statistics. The only major difference was efficiency with shots. Kunitz was far more efficient with his shooting, but that’s also a product of the type of player. While I agree that Kunitz is a top-6 forward and is a perfect complement to Sid, I would love to see Kennedy get an extended look on Sid’s wing. We’ll never know unless we try.
Let’s take a look month-by-month at how TK stacked up.
October: 2G, 2A, 4P, +3, 0PPG
November: 2G, 4A, 6P, -3, 0PPG
December: 1G, 5A, 6P, +5, 0PPG
January: 2G, 4A, 6P, 0, 1PPG
February: 7G, 2A, 9P, -6, 4PPG
March: 5G, 5A, 10P, +3, 1PPG
April: 2G, 2A, 4P, -1, 1PPG
Clearly the loss of Sid and Geno allowed TK to step up, but that is evident when one looks at his role on the PP after both had been lost. Sid goes down in January and Geno was ailing, TK gets put on the PP and scores a goal. February? No Sid, lose Geno, TK scores 4 PPGs and scores 3 others. March? 4 goals even strength and another on the PP. Hell, he even managed a PP goal in April where there were only a few games. Maybe, just maybe, Tyler Kennedy was a missing piece on the power play for the last year or so. If nothing else he is what the PP is lacking – unadulterated greed. Kennedy takes shots like a bro at a party. He doesn’t pass up an opportunity to take a shot, something the PP has been severely lacking.
Games in which TK scored a PP goal the Pens went 5-2. Not a bad record. When a plus player, the Pens went 14-6. As a minus player, the team went 9-12. When neutral, the team’s record was 26-14. Combined as a plus or neutral player the Pens went 40-20. When the stars are plus players the team does well. Imagine that. Even when looking at individual teams and divisions, TK’s production was pretty evenly spread and equal throughout. He performed the best against the Atlantic division, but that is solely because of playing more games against those teams. For what it’s worth, his performance was actually disappointing vs Atlantic teams given how many more games were being played.
Tyler Kennedy had an absolutely unreal year in 2011, and I don’t feel it was by chance. Looking to next year, assuming Kennedy is given his opportunity to play with the stars and get some PP time, I think we can expect another great year from no. 48. My prediction for next season:
Kris Letang. Wow. Just…wow. I remember watching him over the course of the season and now looking over his stat lines I am purely mystified by Letang’s season. I am going to do my best to write objectively, but I want to outline some of my biases regarding Kris Letang. I was disappointed in his play down the stretch. I know I am not alone in being a little disappointed with his play, both offensively and defensively, as the year went on. I was also grossly offended by Letang’s play on PP for the 2nd half of the season. Those were my major bugaboos. That said, I liked a LOT of what I saw out of Letang and hope to see him continue to develop (remember, this will only be Letang’s 5th full-season with the club) and do things the right way.
With that all said and out-of-the-way, I give you Kris Letang’s 2010-2011 season:
Wait, whoops. Wrong film.
Using the Youtube test, you wouldn’t know that Kris Letang actually plays hockey, least of all defense. The first 8 or so videos are all of him giving interviews and funny features because he’s so dreamy. I get it. He’s a handsome fella. I’m confident enough in myself to admit when another man is handsome. He’s not everyone’s cup of tea, but different strokes for different folks. Really, though, for looking for hockey plays, Youtube isn’t all that kind to him. One of the featured videos is his “fight” with Travis Zajac. I’ve got a few videos, though. We’ll have a good time. Let’s take a look at the numbers:
The positive side of the stats – Letang played all 82 games this season, ranking 3rd in the NHL. He also played all 7 games in the playoffs. Well, “played” and “being a warm body wearing a skating penguin” are different terms. For right now, we’ll just say he played every game all season. A huge feat and good on him for doing so. Playing the Pens style of play and being a top-pairing defender is hard work and to do so for every game this season, I must tip my hat to Mr. Letang. A job well done.
Equally positive, he finished the season a plus player for the second time. He finished 2009-2010 with a +1 rating. That greatly improved to a +15 this year. 25 of Letang’s 50 points came even strength, helping showcase the + rating as even more impressive. For the sake of comparison (mentioned in Michalek’s write-up), James Wisniewski finished the season with 51 points but a laughably bad -14 rating. While there are obvious differences between the team and talent that both Letang and Wis have to play with, the concept of them being almost mirrored in opposite directions is stunning. It becomes even more stunning when you realize that Wisniewski was just signed to a contract of $5.5M and Letang is on the second year of a four-year contract at $3.5M. For two million dollars less, Letang put up the same point total and was a net +29 compared to Wisniewski. Advantage Shero.
Letang did take a large number of penalties this past year. With 101 PIM, he nearly doubled his previous season’s record of 51, which doubled that previous season’s record of 24. Deserved or otherwise, Letang needs to take better penalties. Sometimes taking the penalty when you are the only man back and have to take a tripping or interference call to prevent a scoring chance is a good penalty. He did take more of the”good” penalties, but he took a ton of bad penalties to. He also was victimized by incredibly poor officiating and not having any benefit of the doubt because of playing on the same team as Matt Cooke, as we all remember how ludicrous this penalty call was:
No rest for the team which employs a villain such as Cooke. Steigerwald says about “giving the benefit of the doubt” to the officials, and I would agree IF the officials consistently and league-wide called for a zero-tolerance (even though this was a magnificent play and I like seeing these types of plays) on hits to the head (this wasn’t and it was obvious). Instead, Letang was ejected from the game and assessed penalties for playing hockey. Herein lies the debate about banning all contact to the head and how it will soften the game. I, personally, am supportive of an OHL style banning of all hits to the head, intentional, blind side, and otherwise. I like the idea of leaving a little wiggle room in the discipline, but ALL hits are penalized in some manner. Mandatory 2-minute minor with some discrepancy by the officials for majors, misconducts, and match penalties. In a case such as this, Letang would be given a minor (based on what the ref saw) and Josh Bailey would also be serving the minor for roughing. Upon discussion with other officials and/or seeing a replay, the official would have no cause to assess anything more than a two-minute minor. Instead, we are left with a broken system that allows (and encourages) hitting players in the head if they can be expected to see you and if you are in a “hitting zone.” The NHL and NHLPA need to get serious about this and they have done precisely the opposite.
The other important fact that we are overlooking in that video is that Blake Comeau sucks.
As far as point production went, well, there’s where Letang’s season became interesting. Putting 8 goals on the board over the season is admirable for any defenseman. Doing so when so much offense is generated by the D is a little less impressive. Putting up 8 goals when you are the primary quarterback of the power play is abysmal. Just looking at “8 goals and 41A” is misleading, though. The assist stat is HUGE. Putting up 41A, 20 of which came on the PP, is a great number and should be celebrated. Well, it should be considering that 18 of those 20 PPAs came with Sid, Geno, or both in the line-up. That still means he was able to put…2 PPAs on the board without…Sid or Geno.
Wait, what? You mean Crosby and Malkin are important to the PP and the general offensive output? Why I never!
Obviously the PP was a sore spot for Pens fans this season. Is Letang the answer? Honestly, I don’t know. Trying to live up to Gonchar’s legend on the PP is difficult for anyone. There will be a discussion on the PP and what can and cannot be done another time, but for now we’ll roll with what we have on the roster, and Letang is our top PP guy. When looking at the point production on the PP, it becomes clear just how important Sid and Geno are to the success of the PP and how integral it is to have a guy like Letang on top of his game manning the point. Beginning on 1/6 (the first game in the no-Crosby era) and ending in Atlanta, when Mike Comrie scored his only goal of the year, Letang’s PP numbers went as follows: 2G, 9A. He put up 11 points without Sid (and eventually without Geno). Obviously the production dropped off, but not as much as one might think. I believe it was largely due to no 87 or 71 on the ice to finish off the scoring chances AND because of Letang’s terri-bad shooting. We all laugh and joke about Letang’s shooting accuracy, but I lost the ability to laugh as the season went on. It’s one thing if you can’t shoot straight (in my playing days I had a terrible shot) but it doesn’t matter because you aren’t expected to. It’s a whole different beast if you are expected to get pucks on net or at least in the general vicinity. Taking wild shots that swing around the glass and end boards only to be cleared easily is not a means of success.
We all have to dig deep into our memory banks, but try to think back to when Letang was awesome on the PP and we had Sid and Geno just doing their thing. Did you find it? No, well, let’s jog your memory:
My God. I remember. Look at the play by Letang – making a risky, but incredibly skilled play to keep the puck in the zone, didn’t take a wild shot, cut through the middle and dished it off to Sid. Pavelec just couldn’t do anything. He gambled on challenging Letang but left the next open to a bearing down tandem of Sid and Geno. Letang doesn’t make the pass and we all forget about this play. He made the smart play, using his skill to help the team, and he was a beast. Having Sid and Geno help, too. 18 of 20 PP points came with Sid or Geno not on IR. Without cross referencing the game-by-game stats (perhaps shortsighted on my behalf), I think we can assume the majority of those points come from Sid and Geno being unreal.
Goal scoring. That’s right, I said it. Goal scoring. Kris put up 8 goals. Not bad, but not great, given the opportunities he had. More importantly, as the PP quarterback and shooter from the point, he only put up 4 PPG. That means his even strength goals and PP goals were equal. He was almost completely equal in PP points and even-strength points. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but, again, given his skill set AND being given an average of 4:28 per game of PP time, the numbers should be a little higher. In 08-09, Letang had his best year with 10 goals (but only had 23 assists). This was his best season in points and assists, and his second best in goal scoring. Oddly enough, he wasn’t as weak as we thought, at least statistically.
In February, March, and April combined Letang only had 9 total points. That is inexcusable under any circumstances. It either means he cannot handle the responsibility of contributing offensively as an “offensive defenseman.” I disagree with him being labeled as a purely offensive guy because of the great improvement in his defensive game. Either way, I think he knows he needs to be better, both on the PP and even-strength regarding shooting accuracy and not killing offensive zone time by taking poorly placed shots. When you take 236 shots and only get 8 goals, there’s no longer a discussion or debate.
Defensively, I liked Letang’s game for most of the season. Oh, there were times his defense made me want to rip out my hair and the hair of everyone around me, but he generally was better than the year before, and it’s nice to see that. The +15 rating greatly helps, too. By month, Letang was +8, +4, +7, +3, -9, +0, +2. Outside of February in which he put up a -9 (and we need not remember just how painful February was with no Sid, losing Geno, etc). In Pens victories, Letang was a combined +38 and in combined losses he was a -23. Much like Michalek, there’s something to be said about being involved.In only 4 games all season was Letang a + player and the team lost. The Pens went 32-21 when Letang was neutral in +/-, and were 4-17 when a minus player. Not shockingly, when one of your top-4 defenseman is a plus player the team wins more games than they lose. Who ever would have guessed?
There were times, though, when I wanted to reach through and grab that little stain the hair and smack him around.
What the eff? I don’t even want to think about that play. Moving on.
There were some times, especially down the stretch, when Letang just simply would give up on the play. That doesn’t cut it in juniors. It certainly doesn’t cut it at the NHL. Can’t seem to find any of those on Youtube (go figure), but there were times he would lose his man or just flat quit skating and he’d stand there and watch the opposition score. Perhaps the drag of the season and playing every game had an impact on him. Hell, I can barely dig a hole for a few hours a day without needing rest. He’s out there playing like a maniac and getting punched in the face all the while. Still, if he was feeling tired he should have said he needed a rest. A rested Letang at 80% is much better than a proud Letang at 40%.
Sadly, if you plotted just about all stats of Letang’s on a scatterplot/number line/etc, things would go up through December and then just kinda float back down to disappointment by April.
What can we expect out of the dreamiest player? Well, it’s hard to tell. Assuming Sid and Geno are healthy and Paul Coffey come in to school Danny Bylsma on the PP this Summer, I think we can expect some great things. I also happen to think Letang is potentially the big name possibly -possibly- on the trade block. I don’t expect him to go at the deadline, but if another GM is willing to give up huge assets in exchange, I don’t think Shero will turn down the deal.
Like the others, I expect the following from Kris next season (and this, again, is based on nothing but supposition):
I’m gonna lay it down right now – assuming Letang can stay healthy and do his thing without trailing off once the new year rolls around, he will be a Norris finalist. This year he was an All-Star. Next year he’ll be a Norris Finalist.
For those of you who know me, even remotely well, you know that Zbynek Michalek is my favorite player in the NHL. Not just my favorite Penguins player, but my overall favorite player in the entire NHL. I feel the need to address this notion of being a complete and total fanboy for no. 4, as it will be difficult to take a purely objective view of his play and what he brings to the team. I am going to try, but you may have to excuse some fanboy squealing.
When July 1, 2010 rolled around I don’t remember any people other than myself and one or two others banging the drum that Shero needed to sign a defenseman from the Phoenix Coyotes named “Zbynek Michalek.” Everyone recognized the last name because of Milan Michalek, currently a forward for the Ottawa Senators, known for scoring at least one unreal goal per season against the Pens. As a Western Conference player in a market not known for TV exposure, many Pens fans had no idea who or what a “Zbynek Michalek” was.
As the season began everyone was quick to write off both Michalek and Martin as busts because of spending $9M combined on the two. While I agree that the initial sticker shock is high, it really is a bargain when one considers the deals that defensmen got on the open market THIS July. Christian Ehrhoff was signed by the Buffalo Sabres to a 10-year, front loaded contract with an annual cap hit of $4M. While I understand the differences in the game being played by Ehrhoff and Michalek, the money comparison is…wow. If you really want to have a laugh, look at the contract that James Wisniewski was signed to by the Columbus Blue Jackets. 6 years at $5.5M per year. The talking heads in Pittsburgh have crowed that Paul Martin is a bust and overpaid (I completely and totally disagree, but that’s for a later post). Wisniewski finished the season as a -14 all while having recorded 51 points. Let that sink in for a minute. He finished a -14 while recording 51 points (only 10 goals). While Wis may be able to help CBJ’s PP (he did post 29 points on the PP last season), is it worth 5+ million?
As mentioned, I understand the differences in the games and responsibilities of the players are different. If one simply looks at the +/- rating of a player or a point total it can be grossly misleading. Michalek is a prime example, as his career +/- rating is -22, but you can clearly see where the numbers become skewed. -20 and -13 seasons with Phoenix will certainly move the numbers in that direction. As a stay-at-home defensive d-man, though, it’s respectable to hover around neutral +/- most seasons. For the sake of comparison, Brooks Orpik’s career +/- is a -1, and he’s played most of his career with guys like Crosby, Malkin, and Fleury, all of whom have a HUGE impact on +/- rating. Now that some comparisons have been made and my fandom has been brought to light, let’s take a look at the season of “Big Z,” Zbynek Michalek.
Much like with Mr. Cooke, the stats do not tell the whole story. Michalek was hurt in the 3rd game of the season against the New Jersey Devils and missed substantial-but-not-season-crippling time. In his first three games as a Penguin, the Pens went 1-2, both losses coming when Z was a minus player. The lone victory came against the Devils and Michalek finished as a neutral in +/-, but only played 7 minutes and change. Z returned to action a few weeks later against the Dallas Stars, where he also was a minus player in a losing effort (the only reason that game is remembered is because of a certain Sidney Crosby getting into a fight with a certain Matt Niskanen). From here on out, it no longer became a coincidence that Michalek being a minus player typically translated into a Penguins loss.
After returning from injury the Pens records W/ Michalek in the line-up:
As a MINUS player: 6-14
As a neutral rating: 17-12
As a PLUS player: 20-1
When combined, when Michalek is neutral or a plus player, the Pens record was 37-13. I’m glossing over the OT records for the sake of simplicity. I’m just going straight win-loss, not factoring in loser points for the team. It is hard to deny the value of a player like Michalek, even though he doesn’t show up on the score sheet regularly. For the chattering class, though, it is easy to overlook how important players like Michalek are because they don’t put up James Wisniewski or Kris Letang like numbers on offense. With a guy like Michalek, it becomes difficult to review them outside of +/- rating, because these types of players do not put up huge offensive numbers, and in the age of Youtube there aren’t many highlight videos of shot blocking and boxing out opposition.
Overall +/-, in victories Michalek was a combined +22. Conversely, in combined losses he was a -22. The Pens also went undefeated in games when Michalek scored, going 5-0. At home, Michalek was a +3 on the season, while was a -3 on the season as the away team.
Obviously Michalek is integral as a shut-down defenseman. He is placed against the opposing team’s top scorers regularly and he and mate Paul Martin have done an extraordinary job of keeping those scorers in check and keeping Fleury from facing too many primo scoring chances. That said, when there has been a breakdown, both Michalek and Martin have done excellent jobs of recovering and helping out Fleury and/or the forwards who were back in the zone to help. We all remember only too well these moments from the game against the Kings this past season when Michalek saved the team not once but twice in the first period.
In the first case you can see Letang take his man, but nobody was covering Justin Williams. Michalek took away the cross crease play and moved in as Fleury moved out, saving a goal with some absolutely unreal stickwork. In the second play, well, Bob Errey does a fine job of explaining how Michalek played it perfectly. He stuck with the Kings player and prevented him from making a play by separating him from the puck then, either by luck or skill (or both, as it would seem with great players), cleared it from the crease with some help by Vitale showing some hustle. Everyone wet their pants (self included) when Scuderi made a play like that (granted, the stakes were a little higher then), but everyone just kinda goes catatonic when guys who didn’t grow up on the Pens farm do it.
In pure defensive stats, Michalek ranked 27th in the NHL in shot blocking, with 149 shots blocked, had 56 hits, and 14 takeaways. Outside of shotblocking, the stats do not stand out as a killer or league leader, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Being an all around defensive player is what is needed for your top-4.
Zbynek certainly had an interesting year on special teams, too. He was originally never planned to be used on the power play, but as the season went on and the injuries mounted, he became one of the steady hands on the PP, even scoring a PP goal and netting 3 PPA. More importantly, Michalek was a leader on the penalty kill, averaging 3:46 of PK time each game. I feel this would be an opportune time to mention that the Pens finished the season no. 1 overall in PK with 86.1% success rate of killing penalties. For those playing the home game, that is a staggering statistic. It becomes even more terrifying when you realize the Pens were assessed the most penalties in the NHL with 480. The Pens were assessed 374 minor penalties, 74 major penalties, 13 misconducts, 10 game misconducts, a 1 match penalty. All combined for a total of 1388 penalty minutes. The Pens averaged 16.9 minutes of PK time per game.
Let all of those stats sink in for a few minutes. Really. Go get a glass of water, maybe tend to your garden or play with your dog or cat. Think about all the penalties and the fact that the Pens lead the NHL in PK percentage. Even my mind is blown, and I saw every single game.
Allow me to say that I don’t want to discount the efforts of other penalty killers. Craig Adams, Max Talbot, Brooks Orpik, Paul Martin, Kris Letang, Pascal Dupuis, Matt Cooke, and any others I’ve forgotten and/or helped pitch in all worked to create such an absolutely insane penalty kill unit. Of course, it could all be for naught, too, had Marc-Andre Fleury and Brent Johnson not been completely insane between the pipes for the majority of the year, either.
I could go into each category, but you will likely tune out, if you have not done so already, by discussing the point production and ratings against each team. Much like Cooke, there is no one team that Michalek excelled against. He played well against just about everyone. Shockingly, his worst numbers came against Montreal and Carolina. Not exactly two juggernauts of offense or skill. Sometimes there are just teams that have your number. Hopefully those things get fixed next year.
I think it is clear just how important Michalek has become to the success of the team. He may not light the lamp too often or lay out too many hits (both of which I expect to see an uptick in next year), but he is a calm, stable presence on the blueline that is sadly undervalued. There is also a clear correlation between his play and +/- rating and the success of the team. He isn’t allowing much to get behind him or his goaltender and he’s allowing the forwards to do their work. In the entire season there was only one game in which Michalek was a plus player (+1) and the team lost – 2/23 vs San Jose Sharks, and even in defeat they managed to salvage a loser point by going to OT.
What to expect out of Zbynek next year? Well, it’s hard to say. Offensively, I do think he will become more involved, both getting a little time on the PP as well as being more certain of his shot and having guys like Malkin and Crosby around regularly to take some unreal first passes out of the zone. Defensively? I really do not know what more you can ask from him that he did not show us this season.
Projected stats (and like Cooke, these are completely a gut feeling, not basing this off any scientific model):
I say expect more of the same from Zybnek with hopefully a little more offense, as he does have an amazing bomb from the point, and hopefully a little more using his size. I expect the shot blocking to remain in the ~150 range, but expect to see the hits go north of 60. Likewise, I expect to see the takeaways tick up toward 20. Not huge improvements, but enough that the overall play will improve above and beyond what I already believe to be a grossly underrated defensive playmaker.
