Howdy, folks. I know it’s been a while. A long, long while. A lot has happened since I last wrote. Some good, some bad, some in-between type things.

First, and foremost, I feel I need to apologize for effectively allowing this blog to go to pot since last October. There were a variety of reasons why that happened, not the least of which was my complete and total mental collapse. Good news, guys — I’m not dead!

Here’s the thing – I’ve got a ton of stuff on my mind and things to report, but I’m not going to bore you (and I do bore you) with a never ending post of babble and bull. I will focus on one thing in this entry with a little groundwork laid for future posts.

I have spent the last month, more or less, back in Pittsburgh visiting with friends and family. It has both been the greatest and more horrible thing I’ve ever done. Great because, obviously, I love my friends and family and generally just miss the “access” Pittsburgh provides to cultural events and dining and so forth. Certainly when compared to Fayetteville, Pittsburgh is the greatest city in the world. It has been awful, too, for mostly those same reasons. I now have to give those things up all over again, only this time, unlike in 2011, I have been actively cultivating friendships and close, personal bonds. In 2011 I had undergone a passive, borderline eugenics-like program, a culling, if you will, to make the leaving easier. Now? Total opposite. I’ve actually been growing and engendering the seeds into flowers.

That decision, of course, makes my return to NC…difficult. I am, I admit, conflicted. I do not want to return, but I know I have to. My end game, as it stands now, is to return to Pittsburgh as soon as possible. I fully admit, I am considering returning to PA at the end of the next school year even if I don’t have a job lined up simply because…well, that’s a whole different set of stories. Not saying it’s 100% a go, but it’s pretty much a coin flip now.

So, the main purpose of this posting. This isn’t just to show that I’m not dead, or, more appropriately, that the blog isn’t dead. I had considered just letting the name and everything lapse, but…it’s cheap enough to keep this bad boy running each year and sometimes I just need to write.

If you have not yet noticed, the tone of this writing has drastically improved since the last series of posts. That, my gentle snowflakes, is the purpose of this writing.

It has been a long, long, long times since I have felt like this. It’s been well over 10 years, possibly 15 years, that I have been able to hold my head up and look to the future with some degree of hope and promise.

I’m not saying this will last forever, certainly not without intense work, but I finally feel better about things. For the longest time I viewed my life and my world as the living embodiment of the great Rollo May quote on depression; “Depression is the inability to construct a future.” That had been me for a painfully long time. Every time I would look ahead, I could not, in any way, shape, or form, begin to piece together any discernible future. Not for me, not for others around me, etc. I was being perpetually hunted by the nagging thoughts how I simply did not belong among the people of this Earth.

But I have finally emerged. I finally am able to build a future, even a far-off future that is small in scope.

I have finally been able to set some goals for myself that I feel confident in and am approaching with a deadly seriousness. I have two goals set to begin immediately. The first goal, which is not at all unique, but I have had enough incentive otherwise in the last month, is to really, truly get serious about taking better care of myself. I’ve always put everyone else before me. I’m still going to care for others and do for others, but I’m going to make time for myself. That includes taking better care of my physical self. It has been a 20 year battle, but I have finally started to win the war with my own brain and thoughts. Now I need to win the battle with my fat ass.

I will fully admit there is a cosmetic level to this desire, but it is primarily from a health concern reason. I want to prevent things from happening and that is not the way I am trending at present.

Like I said, this is not a unique sentiment, but it is one that I am getting serious about in no small part because I am terrified of where things are going.

The second goal is to do what I have wanted to do for a long, long time – I am going to self-publish a book. It will be similar to the stuff I write here, but not the same (and way less hockey/sports talk). If you’ve read any of Sloane Crosley’s books, I am aiming for something along those lines – whimsical missives about life and the world’s idiosyncrasies.

There are other items that have allowed me to construct the future, but those will not be spoken of here, at least not now.

It is good to be back. Let’s make this a regular thing.

-Walt

As most of you are aware, I am a high school teacher by trade. This is not a post about the problems of the US Educational system or how poorly I get paid for a thankless job. This is about something far, far more profound and personal. Please, if you only ever come here for the sports and ramblings of a borderline personality, you may want to look away from this post. If, however, you are more interested in my thoughts on some psychological issues with which I have been dealing, please, continue reading.

Some of you out there actually know me, or should I say knew me, in the real world. As most everyone knows by now, “Walt Flanagan” is not my real name. It is the identity I have assumed for all my dealings online and otherwise. When when I created this blog in 2011 I paid the extra couple bucks to have an anonymous registration so it could not easily be searched and associated with my real name. Of course, if you have read this…ever or are even remotely capable of putting two and two together, it’s likely you can figure out precisely who is the person behind this madness.

Over the last year, I have undergone what I can only describe as truly moving and profound developments in my life. Moving away from PA was an “easy” decision because I always knew it would happen. Granted, I didn’t expect to end up in the ass end of North Carolina, but it is sometimes hard to know exactly where the current will take you. I had attempted to mentally and emotionally prepare myself for that parting. It did make the leaving easy, but the long tail has been the undeniably difficult part in this (for those unfamiliar, you can read up on the “long tail” here ).

I have spent numerous hours looking into some of the possible causes for my madness. The curse and blessing of being me is that I am very much in tune with my own stunning levels of bullshit. I know who I am and what I intend. I also know my strengths and weaknesses, especially when it comes to psychological instability. I am many, many, many things in this world. A doctor is not one of those things. That said, I know, without ever having been tested for any such maladies, that I “suffer” from a variety of psychological issues, including manic-depressive tendencies. Many of you have seen it in action when I am riding high or falling real low. Sometimes within the span of a few hours.

I have been struggling, for years, to understand my uneasiness and displeasure in the world. I am perfectly happy with being a generalized malcontent with society and day-to-day life. The world needs people like me to balance out those who think everything is sunshine and gumdrops. I will say the things others are afraid to say and think the things others are afraid to think. And this train of thought allowed me the jumping off point to understanding things. I absorb. I take into myself other people’s problems and make them my own. I seek to improve the world by bearing some of its shame and sorrow. I -attempt- to make other people happy by bearing their burdens, as well as my own, because I value my own worth as very low. In a crude, impure way of saying – I don’t care about myself. Obviously I care enough to have spent all this time inside my head and inside of books and research materials to ensure that I keep going, but purely on a basic level, I don’t “care” about myself. I care so deeply and passionately about the people around me that I will allow myself to be crushed under the weight of burden bearing.

It isn’t necessarily a bad thing, though. I feel, truly, it is one of my more charming and redeeming qualities. Among my negatives, which are ample, I do have some incredibly powerful and positive qualities. Those who know me well know that I am frighteningly and fiercely loyal and dedicated. If it gets to the point that I give up on you…things have gone really, really bad. I will walk with you through the fires and until the last of days, but if you give up on me or ignore me, we’ll have trouble. Your problems are my problems. I make them mine. It becomes my responsibility to fix those problems. I can’t save myself so I want to say everyone else possible.

Of course, some of you are rolling your eyes at the notion that I cannot save myself. I know what you’re thinking. I say this because, well, you can’t fix the past. What’s done is done and you learn from it. That is exactly what I have been doing. I’ve been learning from the past. I cannot go back and change the experiences I had as a child. I can’t prevent those around me from making the choices they did. I can’t simply think positive and make the world a happy place. To do so would be to deny what makes me who I am. I could deny the past, but past events molded me into the person I am today. I would much sooner be upset with myself because of failings as a person and friend knowing I tried than be upset with myself for being fake and denying who I am.

To return to the topic at hand, I am writing to discuss a revelation I had and felt I needed to share. I am not the most…openly emotional person. I have emotions. Deep, profound, and dangerous emotions, but I often keep them sealed away and shared, only briefly, with people very, very close to me. For the longest time, regrettably, I relied on a few very close friends for all of my emotional needs. Doing so was incredibly unfair to them and for that I apologize with every fibre of my being. The bank vault in which I store my emotions is neither easily unlocked nor is oft visited. When I enter the vault, it is typically for reasons I cannot explain. I become so fantastically overcome by something, even something simple, that I have a complete and total meltdown.

I had one of those on Friday, October 5. I don’t entirely know what triggered it, but as the day wore on I became more and more sullen and removed. By the time 4:15 hit (the end of our school day), it was a fight just to keep it together enough to drive home. I was washed over with this incredible wave of sadness that I could not explain. Even the things that were funny were no longer sufficient. I’d been down this road many times before. I knew where the path led. Nothing good was going to come of it. Sure enough, I come home to the empty house and just curl up on the old couch and go to sleep. I had texted a few friends and posted some items to Twitter, but it was mostly a lost cause. My brain had won and there was no indication how long this episode was going to last.

An already sour mood was worsened through the night because I was unable to sleep. I roused myself from the couch about midnight and stumbled my way to bed. Thankfully remembered to take my contacts out before falling back asleep, but was so tired and miserable that I fell asleep with the bedside light on. That alone is enough to break my sleep, but I got to experience a thoroughly horrifying episode at about 4 a.m. when I was awakened by an odd feeling across the upper part of my back and lower part of my neck. Thank whatever deity was looking out for me and made me leave the bedside light on, otherwise I would never have been able to identify the Goddamned centipede that found its way both into the house AND into the bed. Thankfully, I avoided being bitten by the bastard, but holy crap was that terrifying. Needless to say, I didn’t really get much sleep last night. I slept on and off for 2 more hours (after spending 30 minutes looking up centipede species local to North Carolina) and gave up and got out of bed at 6 a.m.

The emotions I felt this morning could not easily be put into words. I had felt them millions of times before, but could not quite place my finger on it. There was a level of melancholy that extended beyond sorrow. There was hopelessness. It wasn’t full-blown depression. I still functioned normally and I could see beyond today and tomorrow and so on. I don’t deny that I am in a somewhat perpetual state of depression any more, or, at least, the manic episodes are fewer than the depressive episodes.

And then I got the idea in my head and all the things started to make sense. And that brought me here. I think I discovered the root to my troubles. It sounds so simple and something that I’ve touched on before, but never with any level of depth of specificity. In my research and reading about my suspicions, I felt compelled to share this with you. What I feel to be at the core of many of my problems?

Loneliness.

I know, a little bit of a letdown with all that lead up, but loneliness is a dangerous beast. One recurring theme I’ve found in my reading and researching – people don’t discuss loneliness. It has become somehow painfully stigmatized as something insignificant and easily fixable.

Allow me to tell all of you – No, it is not insignificant or easily fixed.

Having left everyone and everything I knew in Pennsylvania was difficult, but I managed. Moving to North Carolina afforded me the opportunity to begin anew. I was moving up in my professional life, really becoming my own person, and having to live entirely apart from people. It was an “easy” choice to accept the job (not to mention the fact that teaching jobs are few and far between in PA). As time moved on, though, I came to realize just how much I absolutely despise this town. There’s nothing redeeming about Fayetteville, NC. It is a culture-less, classless, thoroughly forgettable town. Not that Pittsburgh was the cultural center of the universe, but there were tons of things to do and places to go and people to see. There is -none- of that here. The few things that are redeemable here become stale and tired after the first time or two.

I could even manage that. I don’t necessarily see this (or want this) as my permanent home. I’ve adopted my dislike for the town as a charming part of my persona at school. I have become openly antagonistic toward the state of North Carolina by declaring my undying belief in norther supremacy. Hell, I recently updated my Facebook information to reflect my education from Troll So Hard University.

But because of the composition and make-up of this town, I have absolutely NOTHING in common with 99% of the population. I have no religious affiliation, I’m openly antagonistic, I dislike the military industrial complex, I’m one step away from being Karl Marx, and I enjoy reading and writing. I basically have zero level of commonality with the average resident of Fayetteville. As such, I don’t meet people here. The only people I know are the people I work with, and I do my damnedest to separate personal life from work. So, I don’t exactly have friends here. Certainly I consider my co-workers my friends, but it’s a little different. Even within that (small) group, only a few of them are people I talk to regularly. Many of them know very little about me. I keep things to myself and don’t allow them in.

The loneliness is, I admit, mostly self-inflicted. Prior to leaving Pittsburgh I made a choice, an active, deliberate choice, to begin cutting off ties to people. I knew I would have to leave PA for a job, so I stopped pursuing romantic relationships. I began to focus solely on online friendships. When the day came that I had to move, it was easy. It was made even easier by my bunch of bastard friends leaving me high-and-dry the Friday before I left when invited to get a drink and/or join me at the Improv. Yes, I’m still salty about it. Deal with it.

I purposefully began to cut myself off from the world. I was already persona non grata in many circles because I was rarely able to be social because of working off-and-on as a substitute (but still needing to maintain the schedule associated with day-in-day-out teaching) and later with my weekend gig as the janitor. March of 2011 was the start of my “end of the world” mentality.

As many know, my living situation was not…ideal. We’ll just leave it at that. Getting away from that was, and still is, a big boon to my psyche, but it was at something of an extreme cost. Here I am, in a state I had only ever visited a few times, to work in a non-traditional school, in a town I had never visited full of people I didn’t know. Hell, I only knew one person in the state when I came down here and that individual lived on the complete opposite end of the state.

But I was happy. I am actually OK with living alone and being left alone. The loneliness isn’t simply about being around people. That’s most people’s common response and answer. “Just go into town. Go do something. Join a meet-up group.” That isn’t my problem. Monday-Friday, sweet mercy, I see and work with enough people of all varieties. Being around people drains my social batteries. I enjoy them. I like being around people and conversing and learning, but it takes a lot out of me. I am, have been, and likely always will be a strong introvert. My Myers-Briggs typology is the INFJ. I’m rare, hard to get to know, even less willing to share details, but also painfully observant and dedicated.

It is not a social thing. The loneliness is far-reaching and deeper than being around others. Being in a social setting would do the opposite of what I needed. It would stress me out and make me want to withdraw even further than I already have.

There are multiple types and levels of loneliness. The very fact that being lonely has been stigmatized and made into some sort of joke is shameful. For the last few years, I have been dealing with a truly ontological type of debate with myself. I have said before, and maintain this belief, that I really don’t know how or where I fit in the grand scheme of the Universe. I don’t belong here. I’m not actively looking for a way out of this life, but I don’t feel comfortable in my own skin. I’ve accepted my mortality. I am ready to die when my number is called. It might be tomorrow, it might be 60 years from now. I’m not afraid of dying because it will ultimately release me from this torture and torment inside my head and my soul every day. Until that day comes, though, this is simply my cross to bear.

So, I am dealing with a loneliness on a cosmic scale. I don’t know what to believe in terms of a higher power. I’m not saying there is no God, but I’m not saying there is. I just flat don’t know. So, I’ve got that going. Of course, the easy answer is “find God” or “embrace science,” but there’s more to it than that. I could do either (or both) and still will be left feeling alone in the world. Something like “finding God” would need to happen naturally, not as a stop-gap for feeling alone and forsaken.

There is the obvious loneliness, too, which is simply not knowing people in this town and not making an active go of it to get to know people. I’ve already made the active choice that I don’t plan on staying here forever. Why get attached to more people I will have to sever ties with if/when I leave in the next few years? On top of that, there are all the previously listed items as to how/why I don’t belong here. Sure, I could join the meet-up groups for people new to town, but who really gives a shit? The groups are made up mostly of other transients who are just keeping themselves busy while their so-and-so is stationed on base. The level of impermanence of this population is staggering, but also completely understandable.

And then there’s the ever-present and looming idea that I have neither a wife nor a girlfriend at this stage in life. While I understand there is the sometimes unfair perception that one should be married and have kids by a certain age, there is a little something to it. I’m not getting any younger.

But it’s more than that. I haven’t had a steady girlfriend since 2009 (broke up right at the start of 2010) and I really have only spent some level of energy and time on it since coming to NC. I met a few people, had some successes and some failures. Did make a good friend out of it. Sadly, she lives 70 miles away in Raleigh. Apparently all the cool people live in Raleigh.

I do miss the companionship of having someone. Not that I don’t miss the other perks and benefits, but I really miss having someone to share a life with. That’s been one of the harder challenges for me. I’ve survived before, and I will continue to survive, but there is a certain level of “Oh, God, this blows” that is attached to this type of loneliness. Nobody to call when feeling down. Nobody to go see when you’ve had a rough day. Everything, again, falls squarely on me.

The bigger issue with this lacking a partner type of loneliness is that I now feel emotionally bankrupt. I don’t even know if I am capable of loving another person any longer. I yearn for true intimacy (not physical intimacy) that I continue to fall deeper and deeper into the well of isolation and despair as I move farther and farther from the last meaningful relationship I had with another person. And I fear what has triggered this last round of whirlwind madness has been allowing my mind to recall what it meant to feel wanted and to share a bond with someone.

I am forever chasing ghosts. I am hunted by predators of my past. I am always searching for answers as to why things happened as they did. I try to dig a hole and bury those emotions. I try to forget what it meant to love. I want to forget what it was like to be important so that I can continue down the path of righteous loneliness, but my mind won’t allow it. I am reminded, too vividly, what it felt like to be near to someone, both physically and emotionally. I am reminded what it felt like to unexpectedly lean in and give or receive an incredibly tender kiss that had roots deep inside a person’s soul. I remember these things and then remember where I am and who I am and the whole demented house of cards world I’ve created crashes down around me. I’m lonely because I remember. I remember because I cannot forget. I cannot forget anything. Especially those things I wish to forget.

At the core of this, I’m lonely. I’ve -accepted- the possibility of being alone for the rest of my days. I’ve accepted that possibility. If it happens, I’ll make do, but it is not my preferred way of life.

I’m no longer afraid to admit it. Nor should any of you.

I am alone. Loneliness is a long, dark tunnel with no visible exit. This sucks.

Here we stand, on the eve of one of the great hockey holidays – free agency. Tomorrow at noon many players across the NHL will become unrestricted free agents and can gleefully sign with any team willing to grossly, grossly overpay for their “services.”

Of course, some teams have already started the holiday. Yes, I’m looking at you, Calgary Flames and Dennis Wideman.

The Penguins have their own free agents needing taken care of, but there is one name most associated with the Penguins and tomorrow’s potential frenzy: Zach Parise. I’ve written before about the Pens’ pursuit of Parise, and I feel that the Pens WILL sign him. The signing, however, comes with plenty of risks, but also plenty of rewards.

Many have said that the Pens should put all of their respective eggs into the basket of signing Ryan Suter. While I agree with those people insofar that Suter is a tremendous player, I don’t feel he is the “answer” the Pens are looking for. Granted, neither is Parise, but there isn’t one singular player that can “fix” the team. It is my belief that the Penguins, generally speaking, have the correct defensive personnel currently on the roster and within the system to achieve success. With Niskanen signing his two-year deal, the defensive depth is solid. Additionally, with the likes of Strait, Bortuzzo, and potentially Despres being ready for a major role with the team, there is no “need” spend ~7 million for one defender. Even less reason to do so when the team is so deeply stocked for the next decade with skilled, potential star defensemen.

That said, goal scoring was NOT the team’s weakness during this year’s playoffs. What ultimately lead to the Pens’ demise was a movement AWAY from defensive play. The 2012 Penguins went the route of the 2008 and 2009 Washington Capitals. All offense all the time. And, much like the Caps, the Pens went down in laughable fashion. The forwards stopped backchecking. The defense was constantly (and preoccupied with) moving north and pinching. The goaltending, while left hung out to dry regularly, was abysmal. It was a complete team failure on so many levels, and that doesn’t exclude the coaching and front office.

So, it brings us to Parise.

Zach Parise is a rarity in the modern NHL. He’s an elite talent (and current captain of a team) going into free agency during the prime of his career. Parise holds all the cards, too. It truly is a dream spot for a professional athlete (and his/her agent).

Reports have been circulating all day that the Pens are preparing to offer Parise a contract of 10-years at approximately $8M/per. An 80 million dollar contract to a guy who has never before played a game for the Penguins is a huge gamble. Is it a necessary gamble?

Well, that’s all a matter of perspective. The way I look at it, I think it is. The contract is a little longer and a touch richer than I feel the Pens can afford, but I also see it as the price that must be paid for ignoring offensive depth for the last half decade. It isn’t simply the issue that Shero doesn’t draft forwards. Don’t get me wrong, that’s a major factor, but the answer to that is “sign Parise for 10 million/per for 5 years.” Looking beyond the next few years leaves the cupboard completely and totally barren in terms of Forwards, especially those who can fill top-6 roles. I’m as excited as the next guy to see what Bennett, Kuhnhackl, Uher, and *gulp…again* Tangradi can do, but there isn’t a whole lot beyond those 4 who look to be maturing into NHL caliber players. The continued, borderline defiant drafting pattern of the Pens has put them in the position to need to sign high-priced free agent forwards OR orchestrate massive trades from the organizational depth at defense.

On paper, though, the Pens have nothing left in the pantry at forward beyond the next 2-3 years. The window is closing fast on Eric Tangradi. As of this writing, he has not signed a new deal with the Pens and could, potentially, walk tomorrow. This, too, can change with one or two offense-first drafts and/or some savvy trades. As I am not Ray Shero, I’m seeing things in a different light.

At the conclusion of the upcoming season the following roster players will enter UFA/RFA status:

Tyler Kennedy

Matt Cooke

Pascal Dupuis

Craig Adams

Dustin Jeffrey

Ben Lovejoy

For those playing at home, that’s 2/3 of the 3rd line, a top line player, the leader of the PK (and valuable 4th line player), and Jeffrey…don’t even know where to place him.

The following season, these players become UFA/RFA:

Evgeni Malkin

Chris Kunitz

Brandon Sutter

Joe Vitale

Brooks Orpik

Kris Letang

Matt Niskanen

Deryk Engelland.

Within 2 seasons, only James Neal and Sidney Crosby are on guaranteed contracts from the current top-6. There are currently -two- forwards under contract beyond the 2013-2014 season (the above mentioned Neal and Crosby). This will change, but it is not a good position to be in.

Hopefully guys like Bennett, Kuhnhackl, and Uher will be able to fill some of those roles, but that’s a LOT of personnel to be losing over the next two years to only have 3 or 4 players in development. Defensively, it’s less of a concern because of the organizational depth…unless we need to trade some of those guys away simply to refill the roster at forward for the next 5 years.

It is a fixable position, certainly. It isn’t a good position, but absolutely can be fixed. And, for better or worse, I think it starts with signing Parise long-term. Guys like Kunitz and Dupuis have been absolute warriors for this team and still have a few seasons left in the tank, but they are getting up in age. They will come cheap(er) as they get older, which works to the Pens’ benefit, but there’s the inevitable trade-off of skill. Crosby and Malkin are entering the primes of their respective careers, too. Malkin has been given the gift of James Neal, also entering the prime of his career. The window of opportunity for this club, as I see it, stays open for another 4-7 years, depending on different variables. Assuming that Malkin is given the extension he has earned (possibly more than Sid, but that’s a different argument) and Parise is signed…that gives you 4 of your top-6 set for at least 5 more years. Not a bad position to be in.

Adding a player like Parise, even if he costs a little more or wants a few more years than the Pens are comfortable with, helps alleviate some of the burden of ignoring offense in the draft AND allows Shero the flexibility to promote and trade defense from within the system to fill the necessary holes.

And, let’s not ignore the elephant in the room…Parise is a phenomenal player who has been a team captain in New Jersey. We all love Sid, but the spectre of major injury looms large. There is concern that he’s one hit away from needing to retire (yes, the same can be said of any player, but not all players are Sidney Crosby). Should Sid find himself out with concussions, or any major injury, over the course of the next ten years, Parise could fill that hole along with Malkin and whatever other pieces have been added admirably. I know it’s something that not everyone wants to think about, but it’s something to consider.

For a variety of reasons, I feel it is imperative for the Pens to sign Parise. Failure to sign Parise, I fear, could be truly devastating. Rarely does a player of this quality come along during free agency. Not only would his signing somewhere else make THAT team infinitely better, it would, by contrast, weaken the Pens because of continuing to need to plug holes and/or play guys above their abilities. I love Tyler Kennedy, but do any of you really want him to get a new contract worth even more money and need to play a top-6 role out of sheer necessity?

Of course, the last time Shero offered a huge contract to a UFA forward, he signed with Detroit and the Pens were left with Ruslan Fedotenko and Miroslav Satan. Oh, and the Pens won the Stanley Cup.

Things will happen as they will happen tomorrow. I firmly believe that signing Parise is the right move, but there are other options if that doesn’t happen. Not signing Parise forces Shero’s hand to make trades from the deep defensive pool. There is nothing wrong with that approach, but it requires Shero to actually make the trade. Failure to act in a major way over the next 12 months will result in many more lost seasons for this team. Parise is one of many options right now, but also what I feel is the best option.

I, personally, don’t buy into the Ryan Suter stuff. I honestly think it’s a bunch of smoke and mirrors from Camp Shero to get teams like Detroit to bite first and hardest on Suter, leaving Parise to the Pens. Believe me, there are going to be plenty of suitors for Suter and Parise. In my heart of hearts, I think the Pens win the Parise sweepstakes as long as Shero doesn’t try to grossly low-ball him. Crosby and Parise being friends helps matters, certainly, but Parise really seems to fit the mold of what Shero and Bylsma have said the team needs – aggressive, skilled forwards with size.

Suter has stated he wishes to remain in the Western Conference, and I don’t think he’s going to bend for that. More importantly, I feel it would be folly for Shero and the Pens to go after him at the expense of the rest of the team. To land Suter, it will, according to most reports, take somewhere between 6 and 8 million per season. For ANY person who has been paying attention to the lunacy of the general Penguins’ fandom this season, paying a defenseman more than 4 dollars is apparently akin to genocide and will be met with scorn. Unless that player has a kitschy nickname or luxurious hair, in which case those players are safe. Paul Martin has become public enemy number 1 among the majority of (thoroughly uneducated, ignorant) Pens fans. Without fail, the first thing they mention about Martin is his $5M price tag. When pressed, the vast majority are unable to define WHY Martin “sucks,” but will gladly, gladly tell you time and again how “he needs to be better for $5M.”

Hold on to your hats if the Pens sign a guy like Suter for 6-7M/year. He’ll make one questionable turnover and the Consol Energy Center will burn to the damn ground. With that said, I think it’s clear that the Pens should not pursue Ryan Suter. I do, however, feel they should go after another defensive free agent…

In a perfect world, the Pens will be able to free up just a little more salary to be able to make a move and stabilize the blue line AS WELL AS sign Zach Parise to a deal. I do feel that Ben Lovejoy will be given his walking papers and Engo will be given the 7th defenseman treatment. With the departure of Michalek and the diminished game of Brooks Orpik, there will be a need to fill a top-4 defensive position. Sure, the Pens COULD go after Suter, but I don’t think they will. I think Shero will go big after Jason Garrison from the Florida Panthers.

Garrison has an absolute beastly shot from the point and is not afraid to use it. His shot is strong and accurate, which could really, really play well on the top PP unit with Letang manning the other point. Garrison also fills some need in having a big, tough d-man, as he’s 6’2″ and 220 lbs.

With the Panthers last season, Garrison trailed only Erik Gudbranson in hits with 127 (for sake of comparison, only Engelland (174) and Orpik (259) had more hits on the Pens), 124 blocked shots (again, would place him 3rd on the Pens behind the now-departed Michalek (144) and Orpik (139)), and 20 takeaways (and, again, would be 3rd on the Pens, behind Letang (28) and Martin (27)).

Offensively, Garrison had something of a coming out season in 2011-2012. Garrison’s stat line:

GP: 88, G: 16, A: 17, P: 33, +6, 32 PIM, 9 PPG, 0 SHG, 1 SHA, 3 GWG, 168S, 9.5S%, 23:42 TOI

Really, pretty impressive for a guy only in his 2nd full-time season with the Panthers. FLA finished with the 7th best PP in 2012, in no small part because of Garrison.

Yes, please.

I know that statistics don’t tell the whole story, but he really seems like the type of player who could thrive with the Pens. That said, I have NO clue about where and how to value his contract. Garrison was making less than $1M/season with Florida. He is relatively inexperienced and no team is going to pay huge dollars for a guy with only 4 years experience, 2 of which in a major role, but this is a thin free agent class for defensemen under age 35.

Numerous teams, I feel, will be in on Garrison and he will have the luxury of choosing between two or three legitimate contenders. Garrison is young and can eat minutes. I think he would be a more-than-suitable replacement/upgrade over Michalek and could slide right in to the Pens system.

If Garrison comes aboard, and I hope he does, I could see the defensive pairings being as follows:

Letang-Garrison

Martin-Orpik

Niskanen-Strait/Bortuzzo

Engelland (7th D).

There’s no promise that Garrison would work with the Pens or that he will sign here (or that he’s even a target), but I like to think he could be a really great pick-up to solidify the blue line for the next 3-4 years.

They very well may all be right, but that doesn’t make what I say wrong.

Look, I am by no means an expert when it comes to development of junior hockey players. I know that most who are drafted do not go on to long, successful careers in the NHL. It’s a crapshoot. I get that. I never claimed it otherwise. I am not a professional scout. And in a mildly passive-aggressive retort: Neither are you.

I got a LOT of shit from a LOT of people who like to remind me that I’m not a professional scout. I would like to point out that neither are they. I have my opinions and, generally speaking, they aren’t particularly popular. I have not been shy for the last year-or-so in criticizing general manager Ray Shero’s draft strategy. The defense I hear regularly is “yeah, and look at all the stud defensemen and success they’re having in Nashville.” My response? “Yeah, they’re developing really great talent…which they can’t afford to cheap and continue to flameout in the 1st and 2nd rounds of the playoffs.” I know winning the Cup and making a deep run each year is unreasonable, but the laughable effort the last 3 years from Pittsburgh in the playoffs has been a massive, systematic failure from the very top all the way down.

Routinely I would hear people say “Shero is a ‘best player available’ type drafter.” Bullshit. The 2012 1st round (as well as 2011′s 1st and 2nd round) proved that Shero does not draft the best played available. When the Staal trade came down, I was over the moon. I like Sutter in exchange for Staal. I wasn’t familiar with Dumoulin, but I’ve heard great things. I was even more thrilled with us having a TOP 10 pick with a guy like Filip Forsberg just sitting there…and Ray Shero, almost as though he has an addiction he can’t kick, selects Derrick Pouliot, a guy generally ranked right around where the Pens originally stood at no. 22.

Shero then, again, selected yet another defenseman 14 picks latter with Olli Maatta.

Here’s why I have a problem with this strategy and the borderline ignorance of only using valuable picks on defensemen: The cupboard is completely bare in terms of forward development. Realistically, over the next 5 years, there’s only 2, maybe 3 guys currently in development at forward who could become legitimate NHL talents.

It wouldn’t be a concern if there was ANY depth behind guys like Bennett, Kuhnhackl, and, *gulp* Tangradi. Dominik Uher is about the only depth guy beyond those three who could see NHL action within a few seasons. I know there was a LOT of talk about a guy like Keven Veilleux, but injuries and general lack of spark seems to have tamped that down considerably. I am likely forgetting someone (and, my God, people will only be too happy to tell me about it), but the point still stands that we are choked up with defensemen and continue drafting more and more of them.

If you look at the defense right now, there’s Joe Morrow, Simon Despres, Scott Harrington, Robert Bortuzzo, Brian Strait, Carl Sneep, Philip Samuelsson, Alex Grant, Reid McNeill, and now Maatta, Dumoulin, and Pouliot. Again, I’ve likely missed 2 or 3 guys, but that is immaterial.

So many times I hear people use the argument that “defensemen are the most sought after commodity,” and they are, generally, correct. But for those assets to actually be useful as a commodity Shero needs to pull the trigger and trade them. Brian Strait and Robert Bortuzzo have shown they are capable of playing in the NHL, but with how things have shaken out, it seems likely they will A: Walk for nothing, B: Get picked off waivers for nothing (assuming they don’t make the team out of camp), or C: will play a regular shift in the NHL night-in-night-out. Why don’t I include option D: Trade them for other assets? Because Shero has shown an unwillingness to trade his precious commodities.

He did pull the trigger on Goligoski, which worked out beautifully, but that still leaves a hilarious logjam both on the Pens and in the development channel. Then he moves Michalek for ANOTHER defensive prospect…after adding a defensive prospect in the Staal trade.

This would really be a truly wonderful thing…if the Pens, from top down, were planning on actually growing and developing the home-grown talent. They aren’t. They sign guys from outside. And they’re making a big push for at least one big time defensive signing while standing in opposition to promotion from within, at least on the foreseeable horizon.

Maybe, one day, far down the line the defensive corps will be guys like Morrow, Pouliot, Maatta, Harrington, Despres…but it doesn’t seem bloody likely, given the history.

It has becomes a relatively well-known fact that I am a “bad fan.” I routinely criticize the team and management. I have high expectations and do not stand for or defend substandard play. When the Pens fall in their well-known pattern of playing lazy defense, or the famous “switch flipping” mentality, I become unbearable. The dealings of Ray Shero have completely sent me over the edge.

I trust Ray Shero implicitly when it comes to getting players signed to cap-friendly, respectable contracts and making trades, but I don’t trust him when it comes to his drafting or moving the defensemen he’s accumulated.

So, of course, I took up the charge of saying the things nobody else is willing to say and thinking the things nobody else is willing to think. I just happen to take to the internet and actually say them for all the world to criticize me. I’m a bad fan because I don’t think everything the team does is wonderful. I’m a bad fan because I don’t like a lot of what the team does. I’m a bad fan because of being critical and having the wherewithal to actually state an opinion that goes against the grain.

I’m a bad fan not out of malice, but out of painful, deep love. I want this team to be successful in every aspect and continually be successful. The current model is NOT one of success. If I wanted a team that played 60 games that were really entertaining, 20 games that were laughably bad, and 2 games that were so-so…I’d watch the Vancouver Canucks.

With the draft said and done, we all turn our eyes toward Free Agency. Next Sunday, July 1, will really be the end result of the last few years under Ray Shero’s guidance. The two names most associated with the Penguins and their collective interests in free agency are F Zach Parise, currently of the New Jersey Devils, and D Ryan Suter, of the Nashville Predators.

A good number of people have already written that Parise is a foregone conclusion to come to Pittsburgh. I wouldn’t be too certain of that. He’s the biggest fish in this free agent class and will have a number of high profile suitors as well as some ludicrous contracts thrown his way. The Penguins, at present, have about $15M in cap space, which is impressive, but about half of that will go to Parise if they wish to sign him. I cannot even fathom what it will take to land Ryan Suter, but signing both is…possible. If the Pens are able to open up a little more cap space, I think both players will be signing here. If additional cap space is not an option, Shero will be forced to pick between the two.

Failure to land either player will be a complete and catastrophic failure on Ray Shero’s part. With trading Staal and Michalek as well as continuing to draft more defensemen, Shero has found himself in the position of having cap space, but also needs to be a big time player on July 1. Failure to land either leaves the Pens down an all-star caliber forward (though I am a big fan of getting Sutter from Carolina) as well as one of the better defensemen on the Pens’ squad from the last two years and 15 million in cap space effectively “unused.” Yes, there are other options, but then Shero may be forced to spend big on secondary or tertiary targets as well as give up some of those coveted defensive assets in WBS.

And so I find myself, again, in the deep end of the fan pool. I’m out in no-man’s land and I’m willing to tread water as long as need be, but I’m fully embracing my inner Randy Quaid from “Major League II.” I’ve fully embraced the snark and criticism…but it takes just one thing – one, small thing – to get me back to being the world’s biggest fanboy. I want this team to succeed. I want them to win every game and every championship for the next forever, but I know that isn’t possible.

The next ten days might truly define the Shero legacy. He’s a brilliant GM when it comes to contracts and trades. I’ve been told for years to trust in Shero and that Shero has a grand plan for all of this. Well, this is when we see what his plan is.

Season recap, grades, and looking ahead coming this week.

You’ve been warned.

Western Conference-

#1 Vancouver vs. #8 Los Angeles: These two teams have done battle in the past in the postseason. I originally predicted this to be the Western Conference Finals matchup. Jonathan Quick could absolutely steal this series for the Kings, but I don’t see that happening. The talent for the Canucks will prevail.

Prediction: Canucks in 6

#2 Saint Louis vs. #7 San Jose: The Blues overachieved in the regular season. The Sharks underachieved in the regular season. For the Sharks, though, the postseason is all that matters. If they had put themselves in a better position in the standings, maybe I could see them doing damage in the playoffs. But they are running into a disciplined team with a strong system. It won’t be pretty, but the Blues will find a way.

Prediction: Blues in 7

#3 Phoenix vs. #6 Chicago: The Blackhawks have been here and done it before. But Jonathan Toews’ injury concern puts their scoring into doubt. The Coyotes have been here but haven’t done it in the postseason. They have the hottest goalie in the league right now, though, in Mike Smith. I can’t guarantee that he’ll carry them through the playoffs. But he’ll do enough in this series to get the Coyotes to round two.

Prediction: Coyotes in 7

#4 Nashville vs. #5 Detroit: The Predators went for it this season, and sure look like the hottest team in the West coming into the playoffs. The Red Wings limp into the playoffs, looking older and less ready for a tough series. Detroit would love nothing more than to prove everyone wrong once more. They’d have to prove me wrong, too. I’ll take the hot team.

Prediction: Predators in 7

Eastern Conference-

#1 New York vs. #8 Ottawa: This was an unexpected last-minute matchup. The Rangers pretty much led the East from December on, getting to leave it in cruise control for most of the second half. The Senators threatened to steal the Northeast Division title from the Bruins, but fell back at the end. Craig Anderson has shown flashes of brilliance in the playoffs before, but Henrik Lundqvist is the best goalie in the league still. Lack of scoring depth may hurt the Rangers, but not yet.

Prediction: Rangers in 5

#2 Boston vs. #7 Washington: Boston was surely expecting to face the Senators in round one. The Caps managed to sneak into this matchup with a strong final week. Tim Thomas may be on fumes at this point, and if he stalls out, the Bruins are done. I think they survive this series, though, because the Caps are weak in goal, and they can’t take enough advantage of Boston’s weaknesses.

Prediction: Bruins in 5

#3 Florida vs. #6 New Jersey: The high-scoring Devils take on the tough-minded Panthers. Don’t sleep on this series, although that will be your inclination. Florida’s Island of Misfit Toys has a fair amount of playoff experience, so they will hang in. But the depth of scoring in New Jersey will prove to be too much for Florida to handle.

Prediction: Devils in 6

#4 Pittsburgh vs. #5 Philadelphia: The cross-state rivals will be meeting for the third time in five playoff years. Both teams have firepower, both teams have experience, both teams have solid defense. The difference? One team has a proven playoff goaltender. The other has a potential head case that has massively struggled in past playoff seasons. That’s enough reason for me to go with the flightless birds.

Prediction: Penguins in 6

This should be a strong first round, with no series that looks likely to be over in four games. I hope it lives up to that high expectation.

Eastern Conference

15. Montreal Canadiens (78 Points, 5th–Northeast Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 12th in East, 4th in Northeast

Why I Didn’t Go Far Enough: I knew the Canadiens were due for a downturn. I just didn’t know the downturn would be on an epic scale. Everything went wrong. Carey Price didn’t play well enough, the team couldn’t get consistent goal-scoring, and the defense was never able to come together. Off the ice, things were a mess, too. An assistant coach was fired right before a game, the head coach was fired, the GM pulled a player from a game (in the middle of it) to trade him, and then finally the GM himself was let go. It’s a messy situation, to say the least. The new broom coming in will sweep clean, but it was too late to fix them this season.

14. New York Islanders (79 Points, 5th–Atlantic Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 9th in East, 4th in Atlantic

Why I Was Too High On Them: I knew the offense would be there. I knew the defense would be average at best. I just happened to think that the goaltending situation would be figured out quickly, mainly due to the inevitable Rick DiPietro injury. The injury happened, but Evgeni Nabokov was hurt for a time, and that made the team struggle too much. It also didn’t help that the four teams from their division finished with 100+ points each. It’s a tough division for a team like this one, and that led to their downfall in the standings.

13. Toronto Maple Leafs (80 Points, 4th–Northeast Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 10th in East, 3rd in Northeast

Why I Overrated Them: I mistakenly thought that the Maple Leafs would finally figure things out in goal. That is the big reason why this team fell apart down the stretch. They had the scoring, and played serviceable defense. The goaltending never gave them a chance, though. And this will be a weakness for a while for them, it appears. It would also help if they could get a couple decent centers. But that isn’t what killed this season for them. The men between the pipes did that.

12. Carolina Hurricanes (82 Points, 5th–Southeast Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 7th in East, 3rd in Southeast

Why I Was Dead Wrong: The team struggled mightily right out of the gates. Paul Maurice was fired (again). The team continued to struggle. They never could find consistency in any aspect of the game. Nothing very exciting to talk about with this squad. Moving on.

11. Winnipeg Jets (84 Points, 4th–Southeast Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 13th in East, 4th in Southeast

Why I Was Right, Sorta: The Zombie Thrashers ended up close to where I expected them to, but got there in a very unexpected way. I expected them to struggle all season long, never get it together, and finish in the bottom of the standings. Instead, they played amazing at home (especially early), and a lot of early-season home games got them up the standings for a long time. Eventually, the team’s play started to slip, too many road games caught up with them, and they plummeted out of playoff contention. The team’s home ice advantage will help them in the future. But it didn’t help them enough this season.

10. Tampa Bay Lightning (84 Points, 3rd–Southeast Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 4th in East, 2nd in Southeast

Why I Was A Freaking Idiot: I thought that the team’s goaltending would hold up. Big surprise that 97-year-old Dwayne Roloson and career backup Mathieu Garon couldn’t get it done. Stamkos and St. Louis got it done for them, but they couldn’t prevent pucks from going in their own net. This is a team that could recover quickly, but they need to fix the massive hole in goal.

9. Buffalo Sabres (89 Points, 3rd–Northeast Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 5th in East, 2nd in Northeast

Why I Was A Freaking Idiot Again: This team just could not right their ship until it was far too late. This team was in last place in the conference in the middle of February. Miller couldn’t lift up the team when he was healthy. The high-priced acquisitions struggled to assimilate. And the best players on the team didn’t play like the best players. They made a late charge, and nearly made the playoffs, but they didn’t deserve that, honestly, and they just fell short.

8. Ottawa Senators (92 Points, 2nd–Northeast Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 15th in East, 5th in Northeast

Why I Must Hang My Head In Shame: Ottawa actually slid back at the end of the season. They would have made me look worse otherwise. The team really came together, and did so quickly. Craig Anderson played well early, the offense provided enough scoring, Erik Karlsson became a household name, and the Sens rose to the top of the East early on. They started to slide down the standings as the season went on, though. This may be leading to a quick exit from the playoffs. But they earned their spot in the playoffs.

7. Washington Capitals (92 Points, 2nd–Southeast Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 1st in East, 1st in Southeast

Why I Might Want To Quit Predicting Things: The Caps struggled early in the year, leading to a coaching change. And removing Boudreau for Dale Hunter actually proved to be a terrible decision, because Hunter has proven not to be an NHL coach. The team has had struggles and injuries, especially in goal. It also didn’t help that Nick Backstrom was out half the season, and Alex Ovechkin had a massively inconsistent season. They pulled it together to make the playoffs, and ultimately, their performance in the playoffs will dictate whether the season is a success, but they definitely haven’t put themselves in a position to win in the playoffs.

6. New Jersey Devils (102 Points, 4th–Atlantic Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 11th in East, 5th in Atlantic

Why I Really Suck: I felt like Martin Brodeur was done. I was wrong. He played well enough, with a good defense in front of him, and the Devils got a ton of offensive support. This isn’t your older brother’s Devils team. Kovalchuk, Parise, Clarkson, Elias, and Sykora all scored more than you expected, and Adam Henrique made a huge impact in his rookie season, filling in for an oft-injured Travis Zajac. All of this led to a strong showing for the team, and a record that would have landed them in first place in the other two divisions.

5. Philadelphia Flyers (103 Points, 3rd–Atlantic Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 8th in East, 3rd in Atlantic

Why I Kinda Missed, But Kinda Didn’t: I felt like the Flyers hurt themselves a bit short-term in the offseason, trading away proven players for a younger and deeper team in the future. The future happened to be right now. This is a good team, especially offensively. So many players that are capable of scoring up and down the lineup. The defense, however, is thin, which could create a problem. And the biggest problem has been in goal. They spent a ton of money to bring in Ilya Bryzgalov, and he has been inconsistent, at best. He needs to get his act together for the team to go anywhere in the playoffs. In the meantime, he did enough to get the team into 5th spot in the East, which is nothing to look down at.

4. Pittsburgh Penguins (108 Points, 2nd–Atlantic Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 2nd in East, 1st in Atlantic

Why I Just Missed: The Penguins played well for most of the season. Any team that finishes with 108 points doesn’t get there by accident. Malkin and Neal played well together all season. Fleury had a great year between the pipes. And Kris Letang would have been a Norris finalist, if he was healthy all season. Add in Sidney Crosby at the end of the season, and the team is a huge threat going into the playoffs. They only fell short of the top of the division because the team ahead of them ran away and hid with the lead.

3. Florida Panthers (94 Points, 1st–Southeast Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 14th in East, 5th in Southeast

Why I Missed By A Mile: The Island of Misfit Toys found a fit together in south Florida. They did it by committee, and it worked. Well, it worked well enough to get them the championship in a weak division. I don’t know that it will work in the playoffs. I don’t know that it will work next season, but this year, Kevin Dineen’s team found their way to the playoffs.

2. Boston Bruins (102 Points, 1st–Northeast Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 3rd in East, 1st in Northeast

Why I Was In The Right Church, Wrong Pew: Boston looked like the best team in hockey during the month of December. That allowed the team to coast to a division title. They did not look great all the time, though. And without Tuukka Rask down the stretch, due to injury, Tim Thomas proved to be human, and an old human at that. This may not bode well, long-term, both in the playoffs and in future seasons. But for this year, the #2 seed is a good place to be.

1. New York Rangers (109 Points, 1st–Atlantic Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 6th in East, 2nd in Atlantic

Why They Exceeded My Expectations: I thought they would be decent, with a good defense, and very good goaltending. Instead, they ended up great, with a great defense, and fantastic goaltending. Lundqvist will win the Vezina. McDonagh and Girardi played at a high level. And the team got enough scoring. They will need more scoring in the playoffs, but for the regular season, they got enough.

So, what have we learned from looking back at the East? I got very little right. I maybe should give up on this predicting stuff.

Screw that. I’ll see you next season.

Western Conference

15. Columbus Blue Jackets (65 Points, 5th–Central Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 15th in West, 5th in Central

Why I Was Correct: Things started off rough for the Jackets, and they never got better. James Wisniewski’s suspension at the start of the season really hamstrung the defense, getting the team off to a slow start. Steve Mason proved to truly not be the answer in goal for the future. Jeff Carter proved to be a horrible fit in Columbus. And with the things that occurred at the trade deadline, Rick Nash appears to be on his way out in weeks. This franchise sure looks like a mess going forward. No surprise that they finished DFL this year.

14. Edmonton Oilers (74 Points, 5th–Northwest Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 13th in West, 5th in Northwest

Why I Was (Mostly) Correct: The Oilers’ deficiencies and strengths were as predicted. They struggled in goal, got inconsistent play on defense, and had decent offense that was streaky at times. The youth of the Oilers, especially on the front end, keeps gaining experience, and they looked brilliant at times. At other times, they looked overmatched. This could be a good team, if they get the defense and goaltending figured out, but since they haven’t yet, the bottom of the standings is where they continue to land.

13. Anaheim Ducks (80 Points, 5th–Pacific Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 7th in West, 3rd in Pacific

Why I Was Wrong: Plain and simple, they were the worst NHL team west of Columbus for the first half of the season. They dug themselves a massive hole, and it cost Randy Carlyle his job. Bruce Boudreau came in, and the team had a massive turn-around in the second half. But the massive hole couldn’t be un-dug. So, the team landed here, and they have a lot of work to do in the offseason to fix the issues that exist.

12. Minnesota Wild (81 Points, 4th–Northwest Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 9th in West, 2nd in Northwest

Why I Was Right AND Wrong: I knew the Wild would fall short of the playoffs this season. But I expected them to contend much longer than they did. At the same time, I never expected them to be the top team in the league in late November. So, basically, the Wild were better AND worse than I expected them to be. I don’t know what to make of them because of it. No clue at all. But if they get Zach Parise in the offseason, look the hell out.

11. Colorado Avalanche (88 Points, 3rd–Northwest Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 12th in West, 4th in Northwest

Why I Was Fairly Correct: The Avalanche hung in there the entire season, but they could not get over the hump and stay in the playoff race at the end. And they truly just fell short. They couldn’t get enough scoring, enough defense, nor enough goaltending to elevate the team into the postseason. There are a lot of positives that the team can take out of the season, but they will need to grow as a team to take it to the next step next season.

10. Dallas Stars (89 Points, 4th–Pacific Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 10th in West, 4th in Pacific

Why I Nailed It: They were actually a little better than I expected, in terms of their point total. But they probably could have used one more scorer in the lineup. It was the concern coming into the season, once Brad Richards moved on to the New York Rangers. Kari Lehtonen played well throughout the season, and the defense was decent. One more offensive talent may have made the difference.

9. Calgary Flames (90 Points, 2nd–Northwest Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 11th in West, 3rd in Northwest

Why I Was Close (But No Cigar): I knew Kiprusoff would play too much. I figured Iginla wouldn’t be able to score enough. But I didn’t expect them to get nearly enough support from the team’s roleplayers. Kipper played well, but the fatigue did show at times. It didn’t help that his backup was out with an injury for a very long stretch. But this team may be stuck in this rut, because they don’t have a lot of cap space (assuming there still is a cap after this offseason). It will be extremely tough to fix things, short of a major roster overhaul.

8. Los Angeles Kings (95 Points, 3rd–Pacific Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 2nd in West, 1st in Pacific

Why I Swung And Missed: This team had all the talent to win their division (and in fairness, they were only two points short of winning it). But they clearly had big struggles in reconciling talent with performance. It just never happened for them on the ice, at least not for long enough stretches. They have been coming on of late, making them a potential playoff threat. And with Jonathan Quick, the team absolutely could get rolling if he is playing well. But in a purely regular season sense, the team was an underachiever.

7. San Jose Sharks (96 Points, 2nd–Pacific Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 4th in West, 2nd in Pacific

Why I Was (Mostly) Wrong: San Jose decided to flip the script on me. Usually, they sit at the top of the conference all season long, finishing impressively. They typically follow that up with an underwhelming playoff performance, typically leading to an early exit. This season, they instead ended up struggling in the regular season, sitting on the wrong side of the playoff cutoff line very late into the year. They managed to pull it together, finding their way to the #7 seed ultimately. But they definitely did not look good doing it. Antti Niemi especially has not engendered confidence, despite a decent stat line. The real test for this team has always been the playoffs. Maybe starting their playoff run in an abnormally low spot will propel them to a big run.

6. Chicago Blackhawks (101 Points, 4th–Central Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 5th in West, 2nd in Central

Why I Just Missed: Chicago never really threatened in the conference this season, due to struggles in goal, health issues for star players, and maddening inconsistency. When the Hawks played to their talent, they were able to beat any team, and they most often did just that. But when the goaltending struggled, or when Toews, Kane, and Sharp were out with injuries, the team struggled against just about any team. Despite all that, they finished 3 points short of gaining home ice advantage in the playoffs.

5. Detroit Red Wings (102 Points, 3rd–Central Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 3rd in West, 1st in Central

Why I Was (A Tad Bit) Wrong: It’s hard to say that the Red Wings underachieved. They set a record for most home wins in a row. They looked like one of the best teams all season long. They were mediocre on the road, but a lot of good teams play well at home and a little less well on the road. The reason why I was a little off had much more to do with two teams that overachieved (ones that will be discussed shortly). The Red Wings are still one of the best in the West, and they showed it throughout the season.

4. Nashville Predators (104 Points, 2nd–Central Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 6th in West, 3rd in Central

Why I Was A Little Off: I expected the Predators to play well this season. But not quite this well. They played well early in the season, and at some point, GM David Poile decided to go for it. And that meant bringing in Andrei Kostitsyn to play with his brother Sergei, bringing in Hal Gill to shore up the defense, and bringing in Paul Gaustad to add more depth to the team. That helped the team climb up the standings, nearly into the top spot in the division. It also helped that they have Ryan Suter, Shea Weber, and Pekka Rinne, all making it very tough to score goals against them. The real test for them will be in the playoffs (as they really went all-in this season). But yet again, Barry Trotz has brought his team to a high level, higher than even I expected.

3. Phoenix Coyotes (97 Points, 1st–Pacific Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 14th in West, 5th in Pacific

Why I Couldn’t Have Been More Wrong: The team overachieved massively throughout the season, in just about every phase of the game. Dave Tippett’s coaching certainly had a big influence, but the forwards played above their heads, allowing the team to finish in the top half of the conference in goals per game. The biggest overachiever, however, was between the pipes. Mike Smith took control of the goaltending situation for the team, and never looked back. He really finished the season strong, catapulting the team into the top spot in the Pacific Division. If his strong play continues, the team may continue its strong play well into May.

2. Saint Louis Blues (109 Points, 1st–Central Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 8th in West, 4th in Central

Why I Didn’t Go Far Enough: I felt I was bold in suggesting that the Blues would make the playoffs. Turns out, I was far too conservative. Ken Hitchcock was installed as coach early in the season, and once he came in, the team sky-rocketed up the standings. Hitchcock’s defense-first philosophy fit in well with the roster of the Blues, and it certainly helped the goaltending tandem behind them. Brian Elliott and Jaroslav Halak had career seasons in their platoon roles. This may cause problems for the playoffs, for obvious reasons, but it brought out the best in the goalies during the season, and that helped the team stay ahead of worthy challengers from Nashville, Detroit, and Chicago.

1. Vancouver Canucks (111 Points, 1st–Northwest Division)

Gripes’ Preseason Prediction: 1st in West, 1st in Northwest

Why I Got This One Right: Short and sweet on this one. Vancouver has the most talent, top-to-bottom, in the conference. Their division isn’t very good. They played the most consistent of any team in the league. No surprise, the cream rose to the top.

So, what have we learned from this look at the West? Some teams made me look like a genius. Others made me look like a blithering idiot. The biggest lesson: Don’t try to make money picking teams’ finishes in the NHL.

However, that conference positioning is extremely volatile, especially when you look at their upcoming schedule. You have looked at the schedule, right? No? Too busy worried about what the Pens might have done at the trade deadline? No matter. That’s what the Gripes are here for. This week, an exploration of the last quarter of the Pens’ schedule: by the numbers, and with some of my own spin on what you’d expect the Pens to do as they head into the playoffs.

To start with, here are the Penguins’ opponents, in order (CAPS indicate home game, @ indicates road game):

February: 29- @Dal

March: 3- @Col; 5- PHX; 7- TOR; 9- FLA; 11- BOS; 15- @Nyr; 17- @Nj; 18- @Phi; 20- WIN; 22- NSH; 24- @Ott; 25- NJ; 27- NYI; 29- @Nyi; 30- @Buf

April: 1- PHI; 3- @Bos; 5- NYR; 7- PHI

In terms of the breakdown, there are 11 home games and 9 road games on the schedule. There are three back-to-back sets of games. Four of the games are against the Western Conference. And nine of the games are against the Atlantic Division.

To get in-depth, though, let’s look at the strength of this schedule. Doing some quick calculations, the 20 remaining Penguins’ opponents have acquired 1460 out of a possible 2502 points on the season, making for a .584 points percentage. Comparing them to their three division rivals, this is what we see:

Pittsburgh (20 Games): .584 (1460/2502)
New York (21 Games): .557 (1471/2642)
Philadelphia (20 Games): .567 (1421/2504)
New Jersey (20 Games): .572 (1438/2514)

While not a massive difference, there is certainly a difference that exists between the teams as they head down the stretch. The Penguins will have a slightly more formidable challenge in their remaining games, which will make it more difficult for the Pens to not only catch the Rangers for the division title, but to also hang on to their spot in the conference, which may force the Penguins on the road for the first round of the playoffs.

No big deal, you say? Well, this season, it’s important for the Penguins. Just looking purely at wins and losses, the Penguins are 20-10 at home, and 16-16 on the road. That matters over the course of a seven-game series in the playoffs. Home ice matters, to a sizable extent.

I’m crazy, you say? Why wouldn’t the Pens want to drop to 6th in the conference, where they can take on a weaker team that wins the Southeast Division? I never want to see my team purposely aiming for a lower playoff spot. What happens if Ottawa stays hot, as well as Philly and New Jersey, and instead of getting 6th, the Penguins end up falling all the way to 7th? Well, what happens is that the Penguins will be staring down the barrel of the defending Stanley Cup champions from Boston in the first round. The Bruins will just beat the Penguins up for between 4 and 7 contests. Even if the Pens somehow get through that series, survive and advance, the physical toll taken on them will never allow them to get to the Stanley Cup. Be careful what you wish for, Penguins fans.

So, what do I think will happen in these last 20 games? If the Pens stay healthy, they can survive this rough schedule. I don’t think the schedule will allow for them to catch the Rangers, but the Pens should land in the 4 vs. 5 matchup. The #4 seed has served the team well in past seasons. I like their chances if they land there in April.