Pens Preview: James Neal

24 07 2011

If ever there was a deadline pick-up that caused more elation, then frustration, then more elation, then abject hatred, then more (un)conditional love followed by even more anger and hostility than James “The Real Deal” Neal, I do not remember who this individual was or why we were so excited and then hate-filled.

I know I have said some unkind things about the general Pens’ fan base before. I don’t have a problem with bandwagon fans. I don’t have a problem with “new” fans because everyone has to start somewhere. I do, however, have a problem with ignorant and/or senseless fans. I’m not saying people should not get emotionally involved with the game and let their emotions sometimes get the best of them. If everyone watched the game from up on high and took themselves completely out of the game it wouldn’t be fun. Sometimes we say things in the heat of the moment or we make comments about a player because of one thing or another. James Neal has shown so many people need to be on mood stabilizers. In the span of 27 games Neal went from savior and to villain. I’ll be first to admit that, yes, he did need to put a few of his chances in the back of the net, but he was also one of the few players on the depleted roster generating offense and making the most what was being offered.

Not pictured: Everyone's unreal expectations of James Neal

I, personally, was a fan of James Neal while he was coming up with Dallas. I never imagined the Pens would be able to peel him away from Dallas. I likened him to Jamie Benn in the Dallas organization and it would take a gross overpayment to get him out of there. Shero was able to get Neal and Niskanen for Alex Goligoski. Don’t get me wrong, I loved Goose and I thought he was unnecessarily shat upon by many fans, but I would make that trade every single day of the week. It was a good hockey trade, too, as Dallas was in desperate need for a puck-moving offensive D-man, and Pittsburgh was in need of legitimate top-6 forwards to play with those guys named Crosby and Malkin, once each got healthy.

And therein lies the rub. Neal wasn’t brought in to be the entire offense and to carry the team. He was brought in to play alongside one of the top line centers and make space, rush the net, bang bodies, and clear a path for the star players all the while keeping the opposing teams honest because he isn’t afraid to shoot and you disrespect his skill at your own peril. The argument has often been made that Staal could play top-line center for just about any team in the league. He was afforded, unfortunately, that opportunity for about 1/3 of the season this year, and while he had a productive year, he clearly was out-of-place. Neal-Staal-Kovalev was not exactly the line anyone had expected, nor was it the line one needed to worry about defending. Neal complements the center, Kovy played without any hustle, and Staal was the scoring threat on the line.

Maybe in NHL from EA Sports that line would put up unlimited goals and be a combined +28498, but in the real world the player styles are a little too different to make things work. Need I remind everyone, Mark Letestu was playing top line center minutes. That’s how messed up it was. Was Neal’s season with Pittsburgh simply a culmination of too many unkind variables? Maybe. Did people, on the whole, have unrealistic expectations about what he could bring in ~20 games? Absolutely. Neal came up playing with defensively minded and “safe” coaches in Dave Tippet and Marc Crawford. Moving to Bylsma’s style and system is a hard transition. I feel people lost sight of that fact. There are other variables, too, in the mix. Neal’s off-season training is with none other than Gary Roberts. I have my concerns that the training regimen is a little too harsh or too rigid. Steven Stamkos, too, trains under Roberts and both he and Neal had the same issues — fading down the stretch. The work rate is there, but the skill level drops off some from earlier in the season. May be from wearing down, may be from other things. Perhaps this is all just baseless conjecture, too.

With all of that out of the way, let’s take a look at the season by the numbers (outright, combined between Dallas and Pittsburgh)

79GP, 22G, 23A, 45P, +7, 66PIM, 212S, 10.4S%, 5PPG, 5PPA, 0SHG, 0SHA, 3GWG, 17:30TOI

We’ll start with the obvious stuff. Playing 79 games is no small feat, especially given the game Neal plays. If you need a reminder as to what that looks like, just watch this video a few times and then imagine what that will look like with Sidney Crosby and, potentially, Chris Kunitz. My God.

To bang bodies like he does and go to the dirty areas for goals, it takes a toll on one’s body. The upside to the Roberts School of Domination is that it does allow Neal to play that way and not become so overly worn down that he needs to take time off and that his body heals quickly. The downside, as mentioned above, is that constant pounding like that can have a long tail and maybe cause a drop off in pure skill plays.

Offensive production, too, is impressive, if a little skewed. 45 points in 79 games is about .6 points per game. Not bad production at all. 22 goals in 79 games puts him squarely in the mold of 1 goal every 3-4 games. Would like to see that tick up to the goal per 2-3 games, but I’ll take 20+ goals regularly. 23 assists is nothing to sneeze at, either. It should not be lost on anyone that his goal production AND assist production are nearly identical. He is scoring, but he’s also setting up the scoring.

Looking deeper into the goal scoring, and this is specifically dealing with his time with the Pens, he wasn’t as disappointing as people made him out to be, but it was a little bit of a letdown when only one goal is scored when he was able to do that 21 other times with Dallas. On a more positive note, in the two games (playoffs included) where Neal scores a goal, the Pens went 2-0.

After being acquired by the Pens, Neal was a minus player 7 of 20 games. In those 7 games, the Pens went 5-2. As a neutral player, the Pens went 3-5. As a plus player, the Pens went 4-1. No real discernible pattern emerges from looking at the trend line. Unlike a Michalek or even a Cooke, looking at +/- doesn’t hold any type of forecast for the Pens and probability of winning or losing outside of “when your top player is a + you typically win.” Simply put, Neal was a minus player 7 times and a neutral or plus player 13 times. Given how few goals the team was scoring once he was acquired, I would say that’s pretty solid two-way play for a guy not necessarily known for being a pure two-way player, like Jordan Staal.

What is mystifying about Neal is if you look at his entire season of production by month.

October: 5G, 5A, 10P, +6

November: 5G, 6A, 11P, +6

December: 3G, 5A, 8P, -1

January: 7G, 1A, 8P, 0+/-

February: 1G, 1A, 2P, -4

March: 1G, 4A, 5P, 0

April: 0G, 1A, 1P, 0

How a player can go from being an absolutely dominant force for the first four months and then become a snakebitten corpse in the point production is truly something to wonder. Is it possible that fatigue was setting in? I believe that was a contributing factor. Add in the fact that he was playing in a new system and playing with guys who were in way over their respective heads attempting to do more than they ever should have been expected to. It was a dangerous combination of things that all came to head and caused many shortsighted fans to call for Shero’s head because Neal didn’t score 30 goals in 20 games.

Additionally, none of the games this season were offensive blowouts to possibly skew the numbers. Neal only had one 3 point game all year (11/18 – DAL v SJS). All others were 2 or fewer points.

Also, for the record, Neal had an assist and was a +1 in the 5-2 romp vs the Penguins, when this memorable moment occurred:

Remember how Sid went on an unreal point scoring tear after that game? Oh, those were the days. It became even funnier that the Pens picked up Niskanen along with Neal to bring it all full circle.

There is no one team which Neal has dominated against, either. That is less of a concern as the majority of his games came against Western Conference teams the Pens will only see one or two times each year. He did, however, prove to be a shootout ace. I know everyone liked to make jokes about how he could only score goals in the shootout, but as long as regular season games are determined by a skill competition, I’ll gladly have him on the team. I had jokingly commented during the season that Neal needed to take a page from Ovechkin’s playbook and cherry pick  past center read and wait for the home run passes from Michalek or Martin and just score on breakaways by pretending it’s a shoot out attempt.

Seriously, though, I’ll never forgot him making Brodeur look like a fool in this attempt:

As far as playoff performance went, well, I think we all remember the work that Neal put in each game. He didn’t have an atrocious game all series (the worst coming in the 8-2 loss, in which he was a -2 with only 1 shot on goal). In game 7, when all the chips were down, he did manage 6 shots on goal. It wasn’t for lack of trying or effort. Of course, we all remember game 4 of the series and the absolutely insane and prophetic talking of Paul Steigerwald and Bob Errey.

Another aspect of Neal’s game is the time spent in the penalty box, or, more appropriately, the lack of time spent in the penalty box. He racked up only 66 total minutes in penalties all year, 19 of which came in a single game vs. Edmonton. Throw out the game vs EDM and he had 47PIM in 78 games. That is impressive, given the totality of the game being played and the fact that he is solid defensively, too.

Ultimately, Neal is only in his 4th year in the NHL. He’s still an incredibly young, up and coming talent. He played with stars on the Stars and put up great numbers. He played with chumps and guys out of  their element in Pittsburgh and put up not so great numbers. We could see what type of skill he had when the shoot out rolled around, but you can’t always count on playing to the SO each game. If one truly wants to evaluate whether Neal was an excellent pick-up, especially given the depth we had on D and how Goligoski became expendable, I suggest you wait until after he gets a full training camp in with the team. We can revisit his performance with the Pens once the All-star break rolls around next season. People have been willing to forgive players like Fleury and Letang for every misstep “because they are young and have a lot to learn.” The pendulum swings that way with Neal, too. He’s a young buck who, frankly, is playing better hockey than can be expected from such a young guy who has been part of a somewhat crummy organization since being drafted.

We won’t really know how the trade worked out until the end of next season. Neal getting to play with guys like Sid and Geno could be exactly what he needs to be a 30+ goal scorer and 60+ point getter. Or maybe he just doesn’t fit the Pens system (I disagree, I think he is the perfect definition of what it means to be a Pittsburgh Penguin) and we’ll go our separate ways. I expect a big year out of him, provided Sid and/or Geno are healthy.

Looking ahead, assuming the stars are playing and the situation is normal, I expect the following out of Neal

77GP, 31G, 28A, 59P, +15, 82PIM, 225S, 13.7S%, 4PPG, 9PPA, 0SHG, 0SHA, 18:17TOI.

For good or bad, I feel the spotlight will be squarely on Mr. Neal this season. Let’s hope it is all for the good and we have the long-term solution and replacement for Kunitz on Sid’s wing (or we keep both Koon and Neal…my God…bodies will be banged, history will be made).

Let’s go Pens.


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22 responses

24 07 2011
TheCynic

Totally agree with your entire outlook of Neal. Personally, I think he will do great things. Good article Walt, keep em coming.

24 07 2011
Walt Flanagan

I just can’t grasp the mindset of people who want to declare him a bust already. He played 20 regular season games, all with AHL players or low-level NHLers playing above board. I know that it is hard to sometimes take the fan glasses off, but the notion that being a Penguin will ensure you score t897408734xcvs7d897sdf67 goals in 5 games in insane.

Like I said – we will not be able to really see how the trade worked out until 2/3 of the way through this season. Once he’s had a full camp and been able to play with legitimate top talent we can begin to assess his value.

24 07 2011
matsif

2nd coming of Kevin Stevens to play with Crosby or Malkin, I hope.

love the kid and hope he’s here for a long time.

24 07 2011
Walt Flanagan

Second coming of Stevens without the drug problem and hookers.

24 07 2011
Kevin Gomolchak

“If ever there was a deadline pick-up that caused more elation, then frustration, then more elation, then abject hatred, then more (un)conditional love followed by even more anger and hostility than James “The Real Deal” Neal, I do not remember who this individual was or why we were so excited and then hate-filled.”

That right there describes everyone’s feelings perfectly. And made me almost piss myself laughing for some reason.
As I stated on Twitter all of his time here last season, I will not call Neal a bust until I see him failing alongside Crosby or Malkin.

24 07 2011
Walt Flanagan

Heh heh. Thank you, sir. I rather enjoyed that and the caption of Neal’s photo near the top. I think it set the tone pretty early on regarding my opinion of Neal.

If he’s still “snakebitten” and struggling to score goals playing alongside Sid and/or Geno, I’ll be concerned.

24 07 2011
Shaina Z

This entire article needs to have a choir of angels surrounding it constantly singing ‘Hallelujah!’ I have never agreed more than with what you said in the beginning of the article about the unrealistic expectations put on Neal. I also agree with you about his drop off at the end of the season being a combo of fatigue and learning a new system. I’m looking forward to next season. The idea of a Kunitz-Crosby-Neal line… fdjaokfheiowgnadskj;fds

Also something that has pissed me off all offseason are the people who are so willing to kick Neal off the top line despite the fact one of the reasons we got him to play with Sid. And they’re judging his playing ability and not even giving him a chance to play for the reason we got him? Dealing with other fans and not even opposing fans is what makes being a sports fan so hard. Tear your hair out hard haha. Anyway excellent preview and I can’t wait to see more. Keep it up!

25 07 2011
Walt Flanagan

This past season saw me battle with A LOT of Pens fans because of the incredible amount of superfans the Pens have in their midst. I was called everything but a human being during the playoffs and told I was a terrible fan because I said losing 8-2 was completely unacceptable in playoffs and that I didn’t think they had what it took to win game 7 (I was right on both counts). I literally was called a bad fan and called a bandwagoner and fairweather fan for *gasp* stating that the Pens weren’t the greatest team ever and would win every game 487590843 to 0.

Last season provided me with enough ammo to see just how shortsighted the Cup win in 09 made a lot of people. How quickly many have forgotten the likes of Rico “-46″ Fata and Koltsov and Tarnstrom and a 23-47-8-4 record.

25 07 2011
Shaina Z

I remember you tweeting about that and it’s ridiculous that people treated you that way. Being a ‘superfan’ is apparently synonymous with being a narrowminded douche that doesn’t understand simple logic. And the problem is people have forgotten that and even more than that there’s a lot of ‘superfans’ who weren’t even around for it. I wasn’t. I freely admit I became a hockey and Pens fan this last year. Does that mean I’m a bandwagoner? No I’m here to stay. But some people have gotten so wrapped up in their fandom that they’ve twisted it and lost what sports really does. It unites people. It brings feelings of happiness, despair, elation, depression, simultaneously to thousands of people. Whether that person still has stats memorized from 15 years ago or someone who still has to have a few of the tougher points of the different games explained to them. Some people have lost that unity, and those people are the reason I get so tired of sports at times. But the reason I never turn away are the people that do understand, the people that welcome open discussion, the people that see that despite the fact I’m a new hockey fan I still have valid and worthwhile opinions. Those are the people that know the true joy sports can bring.

(haha sorry for the rant didn’t realize how long it was until after I finished :P)

25 07 2011
dappadman

Just like a pro-carpenter you smashed that nail.

People were in high spaz mode last season, for good reason, but logic and foresight were thrown to the wayside.

2011-12 is time to watch the NHL world burn.

25 07 2011
Walt Flanagan

Last season was exceptional, but it wasn’t really any different than the year before with the switch-flippers and “arethepensgoingtobeok.” Nobody could legitimately criticize or voice concern, lest they be called a bad fan. The other side is the hive mentality that floats around various personalities and how when one thing is said it becomes law and the weak willed jump on it (i.e. Goligoski getting run out of town, the cult of personality surrounding Ray Shero, etc).

If Sid and Geno play 70+ games, I think the Pens end up the top team in the East and we boast 4 players with 30+ goals. Ambitious, yes, but I think the return of those two with chips on their shoulders will leave a lot of opposing teams very, very sore.

25 07 2011
Docciavelli

We all know that familiarity with the Pens’ “system” is a huge part of the process when players come in. It’s an understatement to say that Neal was tossed into an unfavorable situation when he was acquired. I agree that an accurate assessment would come after a full camp and a few months playing with his intended line–most likely Kunitz/Crosby.

That being said, I’d still love to see what a Neal/Staal/Malkin line could do. Crosby would be the last person to complain about being stuck with Kennedy or Dupuis again, and I don’t think anyone believes this would diminish Crosby’s production significantly.

25 07 2011
Walt Flanagan

Robert Wuhl said it best when he said to “judge slowly” when it comes to people and history. The fact that so many are already shoving Neal into the “bust” category is astonishing.

For the sake of perspective, Neal played a total of 27 games in Pittsburgh. That isn’t even a full 30-day probationary period like John Q. Public gets in his boring office job. By these metrics, nearly every person would get fired in the first month of their job.

I’m not opposed to seeing Neal or Kuni on with Geno. I could very easily see it 14-87-26, 18-71-48. Simply put, we finally have (what I feel) 4 legitimate top-6 wings with two world-class centers. In any combo, you’ve got Kunitz, Neal, Kennedy, and Sullivan to play alongside Sid and Geno.

25 07 2011
Docciavelli

Yeah, there’s a lot of combinations available. Maybe the Sullivan signing evidences Shero/Bylsma’s hope to keep Cooke/Staal/Kennedy together. You’ll hear no complaints out of me if that happens, particularly if it allows Bylsma to play his third line for more minutes, resting Crosby, Malkin, and their lines for later-season play.

It’s worked before.

25 07 2011
Jessica Rex

i really hope the pens can keep Neal and Kunitz. have those two as your 1st and 2nd line left wingers, and it’s jizz city. but that only happens if they both don’t demand $18234823879 next season when they become UFA’s and RFA’s.

pretty much what you posted is what people don’t think about. Neal came in to a team with Staal and Letestu as top line centers. maybe on another team, but when a team is used to playing with Crosby and Malkin, it’s a big thing to get used too. the whole team was out of whack.

i’m gonna say he gets 18:30 TOI. :P but that’s only because i like my numbers to be multiples of 5.

i’m almost positive that playoff game was the only game Bob wasn’t drunk. or he was so drunk he could see the future.

25 07 2011
Walt Flanagan

I feel Kunitz being on the team is contingent on a few factors: 1 – will he take less money?, 2 – Is Tangradi ready to step in to play on the top-6, 3 – Is Neal getting re-signed?

If he takes a discount I could see him back to give Tangradi one or two years on the 2nd/3rd line to get some NHL time. If Neal does not get re-signed, I see Kuni getting signed and Tangradi being shot into the line-up. Very odd situation all around.

This could look like a very, very different team in 2 years.

26 07 2011
jasp871966

Great job my man

and dear God do I miss you guys over at tpb, I don’t know where to begin

keep this thing going, I’m committed to this site

26 07 2011
Walt Flanagan

I appreciate it. For realz. It means a lot when you (or anyone) says that. You touched a brother’s heart.

26 07 2011
jsfitz

Greatest preview produced ever–maybe because it’s James Neal, maybe on it’s own merits, or just maybe their colossal combining together. Jebus, y’all know how to save Mondays.

26 07 2011
jsfitz

And just for the record, James Neal will rise above that #71 & #87 come this season. You mark my words, they’re raising his jersey to the rafters next June.

[Also for the record, apostrophes can lick my cowgrass.]

26 07 2011
Walt Flanagan

Thank you. I appreciate it. I was afraid I was allowing a little too much emotion to come through in this one, but I guess not, given the responses. Neal and the reactions he got from fans just became emblematic of the entire Pens brand, from the fans to the press to the on-ice product this past season. Somehow people just couldn’t grasp that because a player wore a skating penguin on the sweater did not promise they would score 50 goals and have 100+ point seasons. Crosby and Malkin have spoiled the fans, new and otherwise, because they are rare, generational talent and we got used to them being there and covering up for flaws in the system.

Neal is an unbelievable player who has been known to be a little streaky in his goal scoring. One can make a case that truly great players do not need others to showcase their greatness, but that isn’t always true. Neal’s skills depend on others and he is a top-flight complementary player, not a game-breaker or devastating leader like Sid or Geno.

Speaking of Geno, I’m think his preview will be coming up in the next few. Geno, TK, Duper, Martin, Kunitz, Gronk, Orpik, Testy, Flower, Johnny and, of course, Sid all need their own articles. Engo, Lovejoy, Asham, Adams, Sully, DJ, Nisky all may get grouped – one for D, one for Forwards.

I was thinking of combining TK and Dupes into one preview, too. They both have enough to talk about, but that would almost be wasteful doing two sep. previews.

24 02 2012
Tiptoe, softly. « Avoid the Clap

[...] going forward). I have my concerns that Neal is starting to slow down. I made mention of this in my Pens Preview,but there is the possibility of the Gary Roberts Effect at work. What that means – Neal [...]

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